Bitcoin is once again at the center of discussions about the "Santa Rally," approaching the $90,000 mark and hitting an intraday high of $89,850. The price increased by 6.5% from the local low of $84,400, intensifying expectations of continued bullish momentum and technical targets up to $120,000. At the same time, analysts emphasize the importance of defending the critical support level at $84,000 to maintain this momentum.
What Is the Santa Rally and Why Is It Important for Bitcoin?
The "Santa Rally" typically refers to a seasonal price increase at the end of the year, which the market sometimes exhibits over a limited time frame. Analysts discussing this phenomenon focus on historical patterns and short-term drivers, though opinions on the strength of the effect vary. For the current cycle, hopes for a Santa Rally are supported by technical signals and derivatives structure, making this topic important for every market participant; more details on the chances can be found in the article about Santa Rally chances.
Current Bitcoin Price Dynamics
Data shows BTC/USD reached an intraday high of $89,850 after climbing from a local low of $84,400, representing a 6.5% increase from that low. This surge has fueled discussions about the price moving above $90,000 and targeting the next major levels, including the yearly open near $93,300 and resistance zones around $98,000–$100,000. For a more detailed breakdown of current levels and technical analysis, see the review on current levels.
Market Metrics and Derivatives Analysis
The derivatives market structure gives bulls a tactical edge: there is a predominance of short position liquidations, which can create additional buying momentum. Bitcoin’s regime score stands at 16.3%, placing the pair in the upper neutral zone and considered a bullish signal based on historical reactions. Simultaneously, the long/short liquidation dominance oscillator dropped to −11%, indicating a recent spike in forced short position closures.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The critical level to sustain the recovery remains $84,000: the price has held above this mark since the retest, and defending it is vital to maintain the bullish scenario. According to the Glassnode cost basis map, the nearest support lies between $84,000 and $85,600, where investors hold approximately 976,000 BTC, reinforcing the significance of this zone. Resistances include the yearly open around $93,300 and zones near $98,000 and $100,000, which analysts have identified as the next targets if the uptrend continues.
Forecasts and Risks
The technical "megaphone" pattern projects a measured target near $120,000, indicating significant growth potential from current prices and serving as a benchmark for optimistic scenarios. However, some market participants warn of possible pullbacks: discussions include scenarios with deeper declines, which remain a risk factor for short-term plans. For a comprehensive overview of forecasts and scenarios, it is useful to consult the article on forecasts and scenarios.
Why This Matters
Whether you mine in Russia with one or a hundred devices, price movements between $84,000 and $90,000 directly affect your fiat revenue when selling BTC and the timing of income realization. Holding the $84,000 level reduces the likelihood of sharp price drops, providing more room for planning revenue management and covering electricity costs. At the same time, growth toward the pattern’s targets increases the chance of short-term volatile spikes, which are important to consider when managing liquidity.
What to Do?
Practical recommendations for miners with 1–1000 devices focus on risk management and monitoring current market conditions. Below is a concise set of actions that can be taken without complex forecasts or investment advice.
- Monitor the $84,000 level and the $84,000–$85,600 range: sustained holding above these marks lowers the risk of sharp drops below the key level.
- Plan sales considering volatility: stagger revenue realization to reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations.
- Check derivatives and liquidation structures in your data sources to understand when forced position closures might spike.
- Factor in operational costs: compare electricity expenses and mining profitability when deciding to sell or accumulate BTC.
- Maintain a liquidity reserve for sudden price moves to cover short-term obligations without forced sell-offs.
These steps help reduce operational and price risks during high volatility periods without requiring complex forecasts. New market signals, such as holding $84,000 or accelerating short position liquidations, should be considered when adjusting tactics.