Early market participants suggest that 2026 could be a challenging year for Bitcoin, with continued price weakness expected and a possible bottom forming in the fourth quarter. At the same time, experts note ongoing development in payment infrastructure, making BTC usage in real-world transactions more convenient and accessible. This article compiles key forecasts and assessments of how technological improvements will impact everyday Bitcoin use.
Bitcoin Price Forecasts for 2026
According to early investor Michael Terpin, Bitcoin’s price could drop to around $60,000 in Q4 2026, which he views as a potential buying opportunity. Terpin also points out that BTC still has roughly a 20% chance to form new highs before reaching the cyclical bottom, though these odds decrease over time.
Macroeconomic factors also influence price outlooks: Terpin notes that a new Federal Reserve chair could ease economic conditions by lowering interest rates. However, he warns that an unfavorable outcome in the U.S. midterm elections could weaken the pro-crypto regulatory environment and impact the market.
Previously, some analysts expected strong growth in 2025 with price targets between $180,000 and $250,000 by year-end, but actual performance fell short of these expectations. For broader context, see the review of opinions and risks, which discusses various BTC price scenarios for 2026.
Advancements in Bitcoin Payment Technologies
Industry representatives believe that payment infrastructure development in 2026 will simplify practical BTC usage. Square has already integrated Bitcoin payment acceptance into its POS systems, enabling merchants to accept BTC and automatically convert part of sales into cryptocurrency if desired.
A key technological component remains the Lightning Network — a layer-2 solution that reduces payment friction by opening channels between participants and recording only final balances on the ledger. Voltage’s founder, Graham Krizek, estimates that Lightning could capture a share of stablecoin flows, enhancing BTC’s role in daily transactions.
Growth in payment infrastructure will coincide with the emergence of neobanks and stablecoin infrastructure, collectively simplifying BTC’s use as a medium of exchange. Additional context on on-chain flows and macro factors is available in the article on on-chain flows.
Expert and Early Participant Views
Michael Terpin provides a clear price scenario linking BTC’s prospects to macro policy and regulatory conditions. His forecasts emphasize that both price dynamics and regulatory environment will be key market drivers in 2026.
Developer and early adopter Rich Rines notes that 2025 made storing and earning from Bitcoin easier, while 2026 should focus on practical usage. He believes neobanks and Bitcoin-backed stablecoins will promote BTC’s adoption in everyday payments.
Graham Krizek from Voltage highlights Lightning Network’s role in lowering payment barriers and its potential to attract stablecoin flows into fast micropayment schemes.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia, a potential price drop to Terpin’s indicated level means changes in liquidity and decision points for selling or holding mined cryptocurrency. Even if payment infrastructure development doesn’t directly affect your hashrate, it influences monetization methods and fund turnover speed.
Changes in Fed policy and U.S. election outcomes can affect overall market conditions and volatility, impacting mining profitability when selling mined BTC. Simultaneously, easier BTC acceptance by merchants and growth in Lightning payments expand options for using coins without immediate fiat conversion.
What to Do?
- Review your conversion strategy: set price thresholds for selling portions of mined BTC and for long-term holding.
- Assess liquidity and expenses: analyze how price changes and regulatory uncertainty affect your margins and equipment payback periods.
- Explore BTC payment methods: if possible, test Lightning and POS integrations when planning to accept BTC from clients or partners.
- Monitor regulatory environment and Fed decisions: monetary policy and legislation changes influence cryptocurrency’s value and acceptance in payments.
- Read analytical reviews and on-chain data to align price scenarios with actual fund flows and market behavior.
FAQ
Question: Could Bitcoin’s price really fall to $60,000 in 2026?
Answer: According to Michael Terpin, the price could drop to about $60,000 in Q4 2026, which he views as a potential buying opportunity.
Question: What are Bitcoin’s chances of reaching new highs before the cycle bottom?
Answer: Terpin estimates about a 20% probability of new highs before the cyclical bottom, noting these chances decline over time.
Question: How important is the Lightning Network for everyday payments?
Answer: Lightning Network reduces friction in payments and, according to Graham Krizek, may attract stablecoin flows, enhancing BTC payment convenience.