An anonymous 4chan user who previously pinpointed Bitcoin's cycle peak on October 6, 2025, has returned with a bolder forecast: according to his calculations, BTC could reach $250,000 in 2026. He relies on a cycle model built on timing and the historical repetition of price movements, with past date alignments lending significant credibility to his idea. At the same time, many short-term indicators currently look weak, making this forecast a notable topic within the crypto community.
Who Is the Anonymous Trader and His Previous Predictions
The author is an anonymous 4chan participant known for accurately predicting the structure of the previous cycle and the peak on October 6, 2025. His approach is based on a model that considers the time intervals between market bottoms and tops and the repetition of historical movements. This sequence—approximately 1064 days of growth from bottom to peak followed by about 364 days of correction—explains why his earlier predictions attracted attention.
New Forecast for 2026
In his latest post, the trader explicitly names 2026 as a possible time for the next price surge, setting a target of $250,000. He does not present this as a mere "guess," but as a continuation of the same cyclical structure that previously matched real dates. Meanwhile, he describes the current decline as a "reset" phase before the next rise, which underpins his optimistic outlook for 2026.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
Despite the $250,000 forecast, most short-term indicators currently appear bearish. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) has turned downward from high levels—typically interpreted as a sign of a late cycle phase—and the growth of visible demand, measured by net activity of new buyers, has sharply slowed compared to early 2025 highs. These signals point to increased market caution, although the author asserts that the overall cycle structure remains intact.
Factors Supporting Bitcoin's Long-Term Growth
The author believes several structural factors remain unchanged: supply growth continues to decline after the halving, and infrastructure—ETFs, payment solutions, and institutional mechanisms—remains in place. Historically, the strongest growth phases followed periods of skepticism rather than optimism, and the author uses this idea to show that current indicator weakness does not necessarily negate long-term cyclicality.
If you're interested in comparing this viewpoint with other forecasts and market opinions, see, for example, Arthur Hayes' opinion and a review on why many experts' forecasts failed—they offer different perspectives on market behavior and are useful for contrasting arguments.
Why This Matters
For miners operating from one to a thousand devices, the key takeaway is that even with working models and historical alignments, the market can look weak in the short term. Signals like the BCMI reversal and slowing visible demand mean volatility and low-price periods remain risks, so decisions about continuing farm operations and selling mined coins require a balanced approach.
Additionally, the slowing supply growth after the halving and the preservation of infrastructure (ETFs and institutional mechanisms) are factors the author sees as supporting long-term dynamics. Practically, this means miners should combine active risk management with an understanding of the broader cyclical picture.
What to Do?
- Monitor key indicators: track BCMI and visible demand metrics to understand the current cycle phase and optimal entry/exit points.
- Assess mining costs and electricity expenses: during weak price periods, controlling operational costs and optimizing equipment use is especially important.
- Plan sales and hedging in advance: establish rules for when to sell portions of mined coins or use hedging tools to avoid emotional decisions.
- Invest in maintenance and reliability: use low-price periods for equipment upkeep and upgrades to be ready for potential growth.
- Compare opinions and scenarios: cross-check the anonymous trader's model with other analyses, such as market reviews and expert opinions, to gain a broader view of opportunities and risks.