The main story of 2025 was Bitcoin's sharp crash, revealing how unreliable even the most prominent forecasts can be. In this article, we compile the facts about the October 10 flash crash, key target levels cited by analysts and investors, and explore why their predictions failed.
Bitcoin Crash on October 10, 2025
On October 10, Bitcoin plunged $12,000 within minutes, equivalent to nearly a 10% drop in just moments. Over the following 24 hours, liquidations exceeded $19 billion, while the total crypto market capitalization shrank by approximately $500 billion. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency retreated more than 30% below its peak of $126,223 recorded six days before the crash.
Optimistic Forecasts at the Start of 2025
At the beginning and throughout 2025, several notable figures and organizations expressed highly optimistic forecasts. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity predicted Bitcoin would reach $1 billion by 2038, while BlackRock CEO Larry Fink mentioned a target of $700,000 assuming widespread institutional adoption. Some ecosystem representatives projected prices well above hundreds of thousands: Samson Mow from Jan3 forecasted $1,000,000 by the end of 2025, and Adam Back from Blockstream anticipated a range of $500,000–$1,000,000 by year-end.
Conservative Forecasts That Also Proved Overly Optimistic
Even more moderate estimates for 2025 turned out too optimistic after October. JPMorgan raised its forecast to $165,000 by year-end, Michael Saylor of Strategy (MSTR) expected around $150,000, and VanEck predicted a peak of $180,000 in Q1. Bitwise and Tom Lee set targets near $200,000 and $200,000–$250,000 respectively, but these levels could not withstand the shock volatility.
Forecast Revisions After the Crash
Some analysts and institutions revised their expectations downward. Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital publicly lowered his range to $120,000–$125,000 in October, and Standard Chartered cut its target to $100,000 in December. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) continued accumulating positions: it purchased an additional $1 billion in Bitcoin, bringing total holdings to 671,268 BTC.
Conclusions: Why Bitcoin Forecasts Often Miss
- High volatility — rapid price moves can drastically change the picture within minutes.
- External events and news can trigger mass liquidations and shift the market, even if fundamental arguments remain unchanged.
- Predicting institutional behavior is challenging: even revised models don’t account for all scenarios of mass selling or buying.
Why This Matters
For miners operating from one to a thousand devices, such events directly impact revenue and market liquidity for equipment. Sharp price drops reduce fiat-equivalent income and can make selling ASICs less profitable, while increasing the risk of forced liquidations for traders and counterparties. Understanding the scale of past moves and which forecasts failed helps assess operational and strategic risks going forward.
What to Do?
If you mine in Russia with a small or medium farm, focus on practical risk management measures. First, calculate profitability based on conservative price estimates and consider the possibility of sharp drops like the October 10 flash crash.
Second, manage liquidity: keep some funds in reserve to cover expenses during income declines and plan equipment sales timing in advance. Finally, monitor market reviews and forecasts but treat them as possible scenarios rather than strict instructions — a useful year-end overview is available in our article Cryptocurrency 2025 — Year in Review, and a more technical analysis of required growth can be found in Bitcoin Price Forecast 2025.
Brief Summary
The year 2025 demonstrated that even bold forecasts can quickly become outdated: major target levels on both ends of the spectrum did not withstand sudden volatility. Miners must consider risks, plan liquidity, and avoid relying solely on external forecasts when making decisions.