The technical and on-chain structure of the Bitcoin market in 2024–2025 remained generally stable, but macroeconomic conditions limited price potential. In 2024, BTC climbed from around $42,000 to above $100,000, while in 2025, significant price fluctuations occurred between $126,000 and $75,000. This set of facts points to a gap between improved demand structure within the crypto market and external financial factors that restrained further growth.
Bitcoin Price Growth in 2024
In 2024, Bitcoin started the year near $42,000 and gradually rose, surpassing $100,000 in the fourth quarter. The rally was accompanied by notable inflows of ERC-20 stablecoins to exchanges—averaging $38–$45 billion per month—reflecting available capital for the market and supporting accumulation. At the same time, BTC outflows from exchanges remained steady, and the 365-day MVRV metric rose from 1.8 to approximately 2.2, indicating structural strengthening without clear signs of "overheating." In this context, it is useful to refer to the overview of Bitcoin's fundamental metrics in 2025.
Macroeconomic Constraints in 2025
In 2024, the Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet from $7.6 trillion to $6.8 trillion, and in 2025, the reduction continued to $6.5 trillion, removing significant liquidity from the system. Meanwhile, real yields in the U.S. remained positive: around 1.7–1.9% in 2024 and approximately 1.6–2.1% in 2025. These factors increased alternative returns and limited valuations for non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, despite a stable on-chain structure, the market entered a phase of heightened volatility and limited growth; see also related forecasts such as the Grayscale forecast.
Impact of On-Chain Metrics and Macroeconomics
Data from 2024–2025 demonstrate that on-chain metrics define market structure—for example, stablecoin inflows and MVRV behavior reflect accumulation and distribution. At the same time, macroeconomic variables like real yields and the Fed's balance sheet largely set valuation ceilings, limiting the potential for sustained price growth. Therefore, a full understanding of dynamics requires joint analysis of on-chain data and macroeconomics: one without the other provides an incomplete picture.
Why This Matters
Whether you mine with one device or a thousand, the combination of a stable on-chain structure and constraining macroeconomics primarily affects price and volatility rather than the direct operation of equipment. With steady capital inflows, deep drawdowns were avoided, but macro factors can suppress periods of strong price growth and cause sharp pullbacks. For profitability planning, this means price spikes may be short-lived and less predictable without changes in financial policy.
What to Do?
- Regularly monitor on-chain metrics: stablecoin inflows to exchanges, BTC outflows, and 365-day MVRV—they indicate current accumulation or distribution.
- Watch macro indicators: the Fed balance sheet and U.S. real yields—changes here affect Bitcoin's overall risk premium.
- Plan sales and reserves: during volatility, stagger profit-taking to reduce the risk of selling during local dips.
- Optimize electricity and maintenance costs: with compressed price potential, mining margin matters more than rapid capacity expansion.
- Hold part of your revenue in a convenient currency: this helps cover operating expenses during high volatility without forced ASIC sales.
Frequently Asked Questions
What role did stablecoins play in the 2024 growth? ERC-20 stablecoin inflows to exchanges averaged $38–$45 billion per month, providing accessible capital and coinciding with BTC outflows from exchanges, supporting accumulation and steady growth.
Why didn’t the price continue rising in 2025? According to data, macro factors—positive real yields and further Fed balance sheet reduction to $6.5 trillion—acted as valuation constraints, resulting in wide price swings between $126,000 and $75,000.