Bitcoin remains around $88,000 after two days of nearly zero volatility, with the year-to-date result still negative—BTC has declined 6.1% since the start of 2025. Meanwhile, the market experienced a record options expiry worth $24 billion, which some observers linked to a suppressive effect on the price. Traders’ opinions vary: some note a technical bullish divergence on the three-day RSI and predict a possible rise to $100K in early 2026, while others highlight the risk of closing the yearly candle in the red.
Current Bitcoin Price Situation
TradingView data shows price action approaching the $88,000 level after a period of low volatility, during which the price moved within a narrow range. On Friday, the market was disrupted by familiar "fakeout" moves and liquidity hunts accompanying the record $24 billion options expiry; more details can be found in the article about the options expiry.
As a result of this combination of events, short-term dynamics remained limited, and some market participants view this phase as a consolidation period before potential capital redistribution in the new year. Meanwhile, technical signals and options activity remain key factors for short-term impulses.
Traders’ Forecasts for the Near Future
Trader Jelle noted a bullish divergence on the three-day RSI chart, which is seen as support for buyers. Other market participants, notably BitBull, relying on seasonal mechanics, forecast a likely move to $100K in early January 2026, believing that capital reallocation could trigger a breakout of the trendline.
Analysts also emphasize volatility cycles, noting that periods of sharp growth are often followed by extended sideways trading phases. These observations are discussed in detail in the article on the Bitcoin price forecast, which covers scenarios and risks.
Risk of the First "Red" Year After Halving
With the current 6.1% decline, the 2025 yearly candle is at risk of closing negative, which would be the first "red" post-halving year and would challenge the classic four-year cycle theory. This development has drawn market participants’ attention to the significance of the yearly candle close and possible retests of key levels.
Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan noted that the candle close is more important than individual wicks and did not rule out a retest of the yearly open near $93,500 at the last moment. For insights on how volatility and key levels affect trading scenarios, see the article on volatility and key levels.
Why This Matters
Even for miners, the absence of sharp price moves is significant: Bitcoin’s price directly impacts fiat-denominated profitability and decisions about selling mined coins. Periods of low volatility accompanied by major options events can suddenly shift to impulses causing short-term price dips or spikes.
If the yearly candle does close negative, it could alter some investors’ expectations about market cycles and increase short-term uncertainty. For those planning to sell some mined coins in the coming weeks, these signals are a reason to reconsider timing and sales volumes to avoid liquidity hunts.
What to Do?
For miners with any scale from one to a thousand devices, it’s useful to have an action plan for sudden price moves. First, set threshold levels for selling and holding in advance to avoid impulsive decisions during extreme liquidity events; this reduces the risk of selling at a local minimum.
Second, monitor key technical signals and calendar events—such as large options expiries and the yearly candle close—and factor them into sales or capital reallocation plans. Finally, if tax optimization is a consideration, note that some participants mentioned so-called tax harvesting at year-end, which can influence short-term market supply and demand.
This material is not investment advice; all trading and selling decisions should be made independently considering your circumstances.