Bitcoin approached the end of 2025 with volatile dynamics: to finish the year in profit, the cryptocurrency needs to rise by 6.24% from its annual open, roughly at $93,374. In October, the coin reached a new all-time high above $125,000, but soon after, a massive sell-off hit the market, leading to a broad price decline.
Current Bitcoin Price Situation
After the October peak, BTC price fell about 30% and formed a local bottom near $80,000 in November, sparking debates among analysts about the future trend. With such a pullback, the yearly candle risks closing in the red unless the price grows by the required 6.24% in the remaining time.
The market also noted that since November, Bitcoin has been trading significantly below its 365-day moving average, breaking the previous structural trend. These technical factors, combined with the sharp price drop, intensified discussions on whether the year will end with a bullish recovery or if the decline will continue.
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors
One of the key themes of 2025 was the Federal Reserve’s decisions. Throughout the year, the Fed cut rates three times by 25 basis points each, a move seen by the market as a potential catalyst for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
However, Fed leadership sent mixed signals about future policy, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing the lack of a "risk-free" path for policy, casting doubt on the likelihood of another cut. Furthermore, CME’s FedWatch tool shows that only 18.8% of market participants expect a rate reduction in January 2026, indicating cautious market expectations.
Analysts’ and Experts’ Opinions
Analysts are divided: some see grounds for recovery, while others believe the downturn may persist. The debate centers on macroeconomic liquidity and its influence on demand for risk assets, as well as technical levels currently being tested by the market.
Additionally, media featured comments from well-known investors; for example, Kevin O’Leary noted in a magazine piece that quantum computer attacks on Bitcoin would be a waste of time, reflecting one viewpoint in the expert community.
Why This Matters
If Bitcoin does not rise by the required 6.24%, the annual candle will close negative — impacting investor sentiment and potentially increasing volatility at the start of next year. For miners, such price fluctuations are significant as they directly affect mining revenue and equipment profitability.
Moreover, Fed decisions and market rate expectations influence overall liquidity and investors’ willingness to enter risk assets, indirectly affecting Bitcoin’s price. Even without immediate changes, these factors should be considered when planning expenses and electricity reserves.
What to Do?
For miners operating 1–1000 devices, it’s important to have a clear action plan in case of further volatility. First, assess current mining costs and compare them to the current price level to understand the business’s resilience.
- Review farm economics: recalculate profitability at different BTC prices and existing electricity rates.
- Develop a variable hashrate plan: maintain cash reserves to cover expenses during downturns and prepare scenarios for reducing capacity if the decline is prolonged.
- Monitor Fed decisions and CME’s FedWatch tool to gauge market sentiment, helping to promptly adjust risk positions.
If you want to deepen your understanding of yearly results and forecasts, it’s useful to compare this overview with our other materials on prices and market development scenarios. For example, the article forecast around $88K offers alternative price development models, while the review of year-end results and forecasts provides broader market conclusions.