Bitcoin briefly topped $97,000 in early 2026 and traded near previous recent levels, recording a nearly 7% year-to-date gain. That rally has pulled other cryptocurrencies higher and moved the largest digital asset closer to a price level that capped earlier advances since November. Analysts from NYDIG Research and market maker Wintermute identify geopolitical risks and a structural shift in capital flows through the crypto market as the main forces behind this move.
Bitcoin's Recent Rally and Price Levels
The market's improvement so far includes a brief peak above $97,000 and an overall year-to-date gain of close to 7%. This advance has helped lift other tokens and has drawn attention to price thresholds that limited rallies late last year, suggesting traders are watching those levels closely. For an overview of key technical thresholds and scenarios, see the discussion of key levels to monitor.
Key Drivers Behind the Rally
- Geopolitical risk: Analysts cite heightened political uncertainty as a primary short-term catalyst, which has influenced investor demand for non-sovereign assets.
- Structural capital-flow shifts: Institutional products and new on‑ramp vehicles have changed how capital moves into crypto, concentrating demand into large-cap assets.
- U.S. political instability: NYDIG Research’s Greg Cipolaro pointed to tensions between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve — including criticism of Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates on demand — as a notable short-term driver.
Macro Environment and Bitcoin's Role
Broad macro conditions also played a part: global money supply is at an all-time high, and precious metals saw large gains while bitcoin initially lagged as a so-called “digital gold.” NYDIG’s analysis finds that gold and bitcoin respond to different macro dynamics and currently show effectively zero correlation. At the same time, both assets underscore that truly non-sovereign stores of value remain rare on a global scale, and bitcoin may be catching up in investor attention.
Reduction in Market Overhangs
Some downward pressures have diminished recently. Tax-loss selling ended at the turn of the year, removing one source of selling flow that had weighed on prices. Separately, BitMEX Research highlighted that October 10 liquidations left exchanges holding unhedged long positions after auto-deleveraging, and the resolution of those positions reduced a lingering overhang on price.
The Debate Over Bitcoin's Halving Cycle
Market participants continue to debate the relevance of the traditional four-year halving cycle. The halving — a scheduled reduction in miner rewards every 210,000 blocks — has historically been linked to boom-and-bust patterns in bitcoin. Wintermute has gone further, writing that “the four-year cycle is dead” and suggesting 2025 may mark a transition from speculative rotation toward a more established market structure.
Supporting that view, Wintermute’s flow data show that altcoin rallies shortened in 2025, averaging about 20 days compared with over 60 days in 2024, and retail interest shifted toward equities. These changes, together with the rise of ETFs and DATs as concentrated demand outlets, appear to have weakened the traditional transmission mechanism from bitcoin to a broader altcoin cycle.
Future Catalysts for Bitcoin and Crypto Prices
- Institutional products: Wider inclusion of altcoins in institutional vehicles could broaden demand beyond a few large assets, while current ETFs and DATs act as “walled gardens” that sustain demand for majors.
- Wealth effect: Strong rallies in major tokens could free up capital that might flow into smaller tokens if rotation resumes.
- Retail rotation: A shift of retail interest back into crypto from equities would bring renewed inflows and risk appetite; some signs are visible, with spot SOL and XRP ETFs already trading and other filings under review.
Why this matters
If you run from a handful to many hundreds of mining devices in Russia, the recent rally and the nearly 7% year-to-date gain affect the ruble value of any BTC you hold or sell. Higher BTC prices increase the fiat proceeds when you convert mined coins, while concentrated institutional demand can change how reliably those price moves translate into broader market gains.
At the same time, structural concentration in ETFs and DATs means that gains in large-cap assets may not automatically spread to smaller altcoins, which can keep volatility high for non‑BTC tokens. The easing of tax-loss selling and resolved unhedged exchange positions simply removes some past downward pressure, but does not guarantee stable rallies for all assets.
What to do?
Keep routine operational and financial hygiene: monitor BTC price levels relevant to your breakeven, track exchange liquidity, and consider a staged selling approach rather than attempting to time peaks. Watch institutional flows and ETF developments since they influence large-cap liquidity and can affect price formation.
For miners holding altcoins, be aware that shorter altcoin rallies and concentrated capital into majors mean higher risk for smaller tokens; prioritize risk management, control costs, and maintain liquidity to cover expenses if market attention shifts elsewhere. For more on scenarios and technical thresholds, see our price forecast.
