Bitcoin showed high volatility in 2025: it started around $93,000, then dropped to $74,500 in April and climbed to $126,199 in October. In the short term, the market currently looks bearish, and breaking the $74,508 level could lead to a significant decline to $50,000. At the same time, a sustained reversal above $100,000 and a break of moving averages would bring bulls back into play and open the path to the previous high of $126,199.
Overview of the Current Bitcoin Market Situation
Monthly charts show a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating an uptrend. The 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) has acted as support during previous pullbacks and currently stands at $88,049. When assessing near-term levels, both the 20-month EMA support and the April low of $74,508 should be considered.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- $100,000 — level above which the short-term trend may turn bullish.
- $74,508 — critical support; breaking it could disrupt the sequence of higher lows.
- 20-month EMA — $88,049, an important support during corrections.
- $126,199 — previous all-time high and key resistance for bulls.
- $141,188 and $178,621 — potential subsequent targets if the upward movement continues.
Analysis of Monthly and Weekly Charts
Monthly charts show a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, a sign of an uptrend provided key supports hold. If the price closes below the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508, the sequence of higher lows will be broken, weakening demand and setting the stage for a deeper correction.
Weekly charts present a more bearish near-term picture: moving averages are close to completing a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022. In this scenario, the pair may retreat to the $74,508 level, where buyers are expected to defend support; however, a break and close below this level could form a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern and open the way to $50,000.
Forecasts and Possible Scenarios
If the price rebounds and reverses upward from the 20-week EMA and then holds above the psychological $100,000 level, this will signal the continuation of the uptrend and give bulls a chance to push the price back to $126,199. If buyers prevail, the next wave of growth could test $141,188 and $178,621.
Conversely, closing below the 20-month EMA along with breaking $74,508 would break the series of higher lows and could lead to a significant drop down to $50,000. This negative scenario would be invalidated if the price reverses and breaks moving averages upward.
Why This Matters
For miners operating from one to a thousand devices, key levels determine operational economics: a sharp price drop reduces mining revenue, while sustained upward movement increases profitability. The $74,508 and $100,000 levels serve as simple benchmarks for assessing risks and planning electricity and maintenance costs.
The 20-month EMA ($88,049) is especially important: holding above it indicates the preservation of long-term trend support, while breaking it signals possible increased downward pressure. Understanding these signals helps make faster decisions in managing mining farms without needing to monitor numerous indicators.
What to Do?
- Set price alerts at $74,508 and $100,000 to respond quickly to sharp market moves.
- Evaluate current mining margins at different prices (especially at $74,508 and $50,000) and prepare a cost-cutting plan in case of a deep correction.
- If the price approaches the 20-month EMA ($88,049), consider gradually reducing load or optimizing consumption to preserve working capital.
- With a confident close above $100,000, consider gradually increasing sales or reinvesting profits depending on your operational model and reserves.
- For detailed technical chart and level analysis, refer to the extended materials — key levels and trends and 2026 forecast.
FAQ
Which levels should be monitored first? The main focus should be on $74,508 (critical support), the 20-month EMA at $88,049, and the psychological $100,000 threshold. These points help assess the direction of short- and medium-term trends.
What does breaking $74,508 mean? Closing below this level along with breaking the 20-month EMA will break the chain of higher lows and may open a scenario for a drop to $50,000.
When will the trend turn bullish again? The short-term trend will turn bullish if the price reverses upward from the 20-week EMA and confidently surpasses $100,000, opening the way to retest $126,199.