On December 25, following the latest recalculation, Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 0.04% to reach 148.26T. This slight change interrupted a series of declines after the October peak but did not return the metric to its previous maximum. Signs of stability in the network's technical parameters are also visible in the hashrate, which remains above 1 ZH/s.
Changes in Bitcoin Mining Difficulty
After reaching an all-time high of 155.97T on October 29, the difficulty experienced three consecutive decreases—2.37%, 1.95%, and 0.74%—before showing a slight increase on December 25. Industry sources estimate the total difficulty adjustment from the peak at about 4%. These fluctuations indicate the network is slowly returning to a more stable computational power level; more details on the previous 1.95% drop can be found in the 1.95% decrease report.
Hashrate Status and Its Impact
Bitcoin's hashrate has held above 1 ZH/s, with the seven-day smoothed average reported by Glassnode around ~1.06 ZH/s. This behavior suggests that even after a short-term power drop, the network overall remains operational. Forecasts on power changes and their impact on difficulty are available in the difficulty forecast article.
Factors Affecting Mining Difficulty
In mid-December, a temporary hashrate decline was observed, which some attributed to the shutdown of Bitcoin farms in Xinjiang province and a sharp cold snap in parts of the U.S. However, several analysts noted these reductions were temporary, and no large-scale equipment shutdowns have been recorded so far. Some market participants, including investment representatives, mentioned "miner capitulation," but this has not yet resulted in a mass market exit.
Economic Aspects of Mining
Industry estimates indicate the network difficulty has adjusted down about 4% from its peak, aligning with the overall decrease in computational power. During the same period, Bitcoin prices fell roughly 20%, while the stabilization of blockchain technical parameters kept the hashprice near $38 per PH/s per day. These conditions continue to pressure mining economics and miner margins.
Bitcoin Market Situation
In December, institutional investors began buying Bitcoins faster than miners could produce them, creating additional market demand. Meanwhile, the limited difficulty decrease and relative hashrate stability suggest the network is enduring this period without large-scale equipment shutdowns. For miners, this means a combination of increased market activity and maintained network operational capacity.
Why This Matters
For miners with any number of devices, these data show the network remains functional overall: a slight difficulty increase and hashrate above 1 ZH/s reduce the likelihood of sudden reward drops due to technical issues. At the same time, a ~20% price drop and a hashprice around $38 per PH/s per day directly impact mining profitability, especially for owners of older or less energy-efficient equipment.
Additionally, institutional buyer activity indicates growing demand for Bitcoin, which may support prices amid reduced miner supply. Even if this does not immediately change technical network parameters, the financial side of mining remains vulnerable to market shifts.
What To Do?
- Recalculate current profitability considering a hashprice of approximately $38/PH/s and your electricity costs; this will help determine whether to continue operating your current equipment fleet.
- Plan maintenance and upgrades to improve energy efficiency and reduce operating expenses amid margin pressures.
- Diversify risks: if possible, distribute power across different locations and electricity providers to minimize the impact of local outages.
- Monitor difficulty and hashrate trends (including 7-day moving averages) and respond to sustained trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
- Evaluate your strategy for storing and selling mined coins, considering that institutional investors bought more Bitcoin in December than miners produced.
For more details, we have materials on previous difficulty changes and industry crises that can help make practical decisions and assess risks in the mining crisis article.