The 2024 halving created a tougher operating environment for miners: the reduction in block rewards significantly cut revenue and increased margin pressure. According to TheMinerMag, this became "the toughest margin environment in history," forcing many operators to seek additional income sources. Concurrently, 2025 saw strong price volatility and shifts in key mining economic indicators, prompting companies to reassess their business strategies.
Impact of the Halving on Bitcoin Mining
The halving reduces the subsidy per mined block, directly lowering mining profitability and pushing operators to economize or diversify their business. After the April halving, the block subsidy stabilized at 3.125 BTC, intensifying competition for transaction fees and access to cheap energy. Margin pressure was accompanied by rising debt and declining returns — affecting even public companies with significant reserves and capital access.
- Reduction in block rewards and margin pressure;
- Increase in debt and decline in profitability;
- Challenges even for public companies with financing access.
2026 Trends: AI, HPC, and Consolidation
Margin compression accelerated asset redistribution: some miners are pivoting to AI and high-performance computing (HPC), leveraging existing power and cooling infrastructure for GPU workloads. HIVE Digital Technologies was among the first to take this direction, starting its HPC shift in 2022 and already generating related revenues. Other public miners, including Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Hut 8, Riot Platforms, TeraWulf, and IREN, have also announced or implemented similar plans, with the industry moving toward consolidation through mergers and acquisitions.
The emergence of strategic investors reinforces these trends: for example, Google became a major shareholder in TeraWulf, acquiring a 14% stake. Such deals reshape ownership and capital access in the sector, simultaneously impacting scaling opportunities for new business lines.
- Shifting some capacity to AI and HPC, utilizing data centers for GPU tasks;
- Company examples: HIVE, Core Scientific, MARA, Hut 8, Riot, TeraWulf, and IREN;
- Consolidation through deals and mergers, altering industry structure.
Mining Profitability Factors
Mining profitability now depends not only on hash rate scale but also on energy costs, fee structures, and Bitcoin price movements. In 2025, Bitcoin rose stepwise, peaking above $126,000 in October; however, subsequent corrections reduced miner revenue and key metrics. Hashprice fell from about $55 per PH/s to a structural low near $35 per PH/s, while average mining costs increased to roughly $70,000 in Q2 2025, further squeezing operator margins.
- Dependence on energy cost and access to cheap electricity;
- Role of transaction fees amid subsidy reductions;
- Impact of Bitcoin price volatility on revenue and company balance sheets.
Risks for Miner Stocks
Public miners often hold significant BTC reserves on their balance sheets, amplifying earnings volatility during sharp price swings. Some companies have followed strategies of retaining part of mined Bitcoin in treasury, increasing balance sheet risks during market downturns and affecting stock valuations. This combination of operational and market factors raises investment risks in mining company shares.
Another risk is shareholder dilution: mining remains capital-intensive, and during operating cash flow squeezes, companies resort to equity issuance, debt, or convertible instruments. Some miners have accessed debt markets or convertible notes to support their balance sheets and fund new initiatives.
- Volatility due to large BTC holdings by public miners;
- Share dilution through additional issuances when capital is needed;
- Dependence on external financing and debt instruments.
Why This Matters
Whether you operate a single farm or hundreds of devices in Russia, these changes mean that simply scaling up no longer guarantees stable income. The drop in hashprice and rise in average costs in 2025 reduce resilience, especially for those with high electricity costs or outdated equipment. Meanwhile, new directions like renting capacity for AI/HPC workloads can provide additional revenue streams but require cost and organizational capability assessments.
What to Do?
Below are practical steps for miners with 1–1000 devices in Russia to reduce risks and maintain profitability.
- Recalculate breakeven costs: include current electricity prices and actual equipment performance, considering the significant hashprice decline.
- Optimize energy consumption: review ASIC settings, cooling modes, and scheduled maintenance to minimize downtime and excess energy use.
- Evaluate diversification options: if space and permits allow, consider repurposing part of the infrastructure for other computing tasks, as some public miners do.
- Monitor companies' financial moves and capital markets: debt raises or equity issuances alter the competitive landscape and miner stock prices.
- Maintain liquidity reserves: having funds on hand helps cover expenses during revenue downturns amid volatility.
To understand difficulty dynamics and miner behavior in 2025, it’s useful to read materials on current difficulty changes and miner capitulation to align your profitability forecasts and risk assessments.
For more on recent industry events, see articles on difficulty changes, the 2025 miner capitulation overview, and an analysis of challenges for miners to evaluate company strategies and their hurdles.