VanEck assessed the recent drop in Bitcoin's hashrate as a potential miner capitulation signal, which historically has often preceded price increases. According to the report, by December 15, 2025, the network lost approximately 4% of its hashrate, while Bitcoin's price on December 23 stood at $88,400. Simultaneously, the mining economics evaluation shows a significant decrease in the breakeven price for the popular Bitmain S19 XP model—nearly 36%.
What Is Miner Capitulation and Why Does It Matter?
Miner capitulation refers to the mass shutdown or suspension of mining equipment due to unprofitability or other economic reasons. VanEck describes such episodes as "historically bullish counter-signals," meaning periods when hashrate declines are followed by price recoveries. These observations are based on historical profit shocks and subsequent financial responses from network participants.
The VanEck report notes that since 2014, Bitcoin's 90-day returns were positive in 65% of cases following hashrate drops over the previous 30 days. This statistic demonstrates a frequent correlation between mining power contraction and subsequent price recovery, though it does not guarantee outcomes for every specific episode. For deeper analysis, see market bottom indicators comparable to the discussed signals.
Bitcoin Hashrate Dynamics in December 2025
By mid-December, the network showed a roughly 4% decrease in hashrate compared to the previous month, which VanEck associates with widespread equipment shutdowns. The drop in mining power affects reward distribution across the network and temporarily renders some miners unprofitable, especially at the current BTC price.
VanEck analysts emphasize that when hashrate contraction lasts longer, positive forward returns occur more frequently and with greater magnitude, supported by the historical ratio of positive 90-day results. This is important for assessing likely market scenarios in the coming months.
Mining Economics: Changes in Breakeven Prices
VanEck calculated that the breakeven price for the Bitmain S19 XP miner fell nearly 36%—from $0.12/kWh in December 2024 to about $0.077/kWh by mid-December 2025. This reduction eases conditions for some operators and decreases the share of equipment running at a loss under current tariffs and BTC prices.
A lower breakeven price means some previously unprofitable rigs may return to operation if price conditions improve, and profitability for remaining miners could increase. For a broader outlook on mining prospects, see VanEck's 2026 forecasts.
Global Changes in Bitcoin Mining
The VanEck report points out that about 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity were shut down in China, which contributed to the hashrate decline. Some of this capacity may be redirected to other energy uses, altering the global mining distribution map.
Additionally, analysts note that up to 13 countries now officially support Bitcoin mining, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan. Government support in various jurisdictions influences the location and structure of the industry, which should be considered when planning operations.
Why This Matters
For a miner in Russia with any number of devices, key factors are BTC price, network hashrate, and your operating costs. A 4% hashrate drop and a 36% reduction in breakeven price for the S19 XP ease pressure on some operators but do not eliminate the impact of local electricity rates and other expenses.
If Bitcoin's price rises after capitulation, it can expand your margins and bring previously unprofitable equipment back online. Meanwhile, global capacity shutdowns (such as in China) shift network competition and may affect reward distribution in the coming months.
What To Do?
- Review your actual costs: recalculate breakeven price considering current tariffs and equipment efficiency.
- Monitor hashrate and BTC price: track changes in hashrate (drops/rises) and spot price to make informed decisions about running or pausing farms.
- Optimize energy consumption: adjust ASIC operation, check cooling and network losses to reduce costs.
- Consider mining pools and payout schedules: with unstable income, pools can smooth reward flows and reduce revenue volatility.
- Plan capital expenditures cautiously: lower breakeven helps but does not guarantee profit at any tariff or BTC price.
- Stay informed on regulatory environment and local mining support—government changes can affect electricity availability and tax burden.
Frequently Asked Questions
Briefly: does a hashrate drop mean BTC price will rise? Historically, such episodes have often been followed by price increases, but this is not guaranteed. VanEck notes a statistical correlation but does not promise specific outcomes.
How does breakeven price decline affect me as a miner? Lower breakeven eases conditions: some previously unprofitable rigs may become economically viable again. The ultimate effect depends on your actual tariffs and current BTC price.
Do I need to take action right now? It is recommended to recalculate costs, optimize energy use, and monitor hashrate and price dynamics to make balanced operational decisions.