In 2025, the crypto market responded less to short-term price fluctuations and increasingly reflected deeper shifts in demand and supply structure. Analysts at XWIN Research Japan noted that key signals emerged from on-chain metrics rather than charts, and participant behavior changed well before noticeable price reactions. Thus, the primary focus shifted from simple volatility to capital flows and ownership structure.
Changes in Demand and Supply Structure
According to XWIN Research, the rule was clear: demand and supply shift before these changes are reflected in price, and this is visible in on-chain indicators. As a result, the market began to focus less on short-term moves and more on asset distribution and liquidity concentration. This shift in attention alters the logic of analysis and decision-making among market participants.
The Role of On-Chain Metrics
On-chain analysis of net flows to exchanges, large holder activity, and differences between short-term and long-term investors revealed recurring patterns of distribution and accumulation. During bullish phases, hidden distribution occurred, while in fearful periods, accumulation took place unnoticed by most. Notably, in 2025, BTC continued to leave exchanges even amid sideways price movement, underscoring the importance of monitoring balances and flows rather than just charts; see also materials on the Bitcoin price in 2025.
Impact of Stablecoins and Derivatives
XWIN Research viewed stablecoins as a form of passive capital within the ecosystem, not merely as an exit tool, supported by ERC-20 supply metrics and exchange reserves. Simultaneously, futures and perpetual contract volumes consistently exceeded spot volumes, especially in the Ethereum segment, altering price formation mechanisms. Derivatives increasingly operated through liquidations and position reallocations, influencing dynamics without clear spot demand increases; for comparison, see the analysis of the start of the bear market.
Signs of Demand Weakening
By year-end, signs of cooling appeared: ETF inflows began to decline, institutional growth slowed, and prices dropped below long-term averages. These signals indicated reduced activity from major players and waning external interest supporting previous price levels. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics continued to capture structural changes often unnoticed in news coverage, necessitating closer monitoring of balances and flows.
The Maturing Crypto Market
Analysis showed investor behavior becoming more pragmatic: participants increasingly focused on liquidity flows and actual balances rather than expectations and forecasts. XWIN Research interprets this shift toward pragmatism and internal market mechanisms as a sign of transition to a more mature phase. Consequently, approaching 2026, the market appeared less driven by emotions and more governed by internal processes.
Why It Matters
For miners, any change in market structure means looking beyond price to consider liquidity flows and exchange balances. Even during sideways price action, BTC outflows from exchanges and rising derivatives share can affect liquidity availability and counterparty behavior. Understanding on-chain signals helps make better-informed decisions regarding selling, holding, and using funds.
What to Do?
Whether you manage one or a thousand devices, it’s useful to systematize monitoring of several on-chain metrics and market flows instead of relying solely on price. Below are practical steps you can implement quickly without additional assumptions.
- Track net flows to exchanges and large wallet balances to identify accumulation or distribution phases.
- Monitor ETF inflows and derivatives volumes; their changes affect overall market liquidity and volatility.
- Keep part of your proceeds in strategies that consider stablecoins as internal liquidity if it fits your risk management model.
- Plan sales and purchases based on demand structure—making decisions using both charts and on-chain signals.
- Regularly compare your observations with analytics to adjust behavior as flows and balances change.