Bitcoin ended 2025 lower than it started—the first time a post-halving year has closed with a decline. The halving itself took place in April 2024, and the yearly peak was $126,080 on October 6, after which the price dropped more than 30% from that high.
What Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle?
The four-year cycle, as understood by the market, is tied to the halving event—when miner rewards are cut in half and fewer new coins enter the market. Historically, this led to a pattern: accumulation after the halving, a bull run reaching new highs, followed by a strong correction and a multi-year bear phase, as seen after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. This cycle long served as a benchmark for forecasting and market behavior analysis.
Why Was 2025 an Exception?
For the first time in post-halving years, Bitcoin ended 2025 below its starting level, breaking the usual pattern. Despite the April 2024 halving, the price reached a local maximum of $126,080 on October 6, then fell over 30% from that peak, as shown by CoinGecko's 2025 price data. These facts are prompting market participants to reconsider the expectation that a halving automatically leads to annual gains.
Experts' Views on the "Death" of the Four-Year Cycle
Some industry figures have already stated that the classic cycle no longer functions as before. For example, Vivek Sen from Bitgrow Lab wrote on X that ending the year in the red shows the cycle is "Officially dead." Investor Armando Pantoja links these changes to the arrival of new institutional players and traders, noting that the market now reacts strongly to liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitics rather than the "perfect" halving schedule.
Who Believes the Cycle Is Still Alive?
At the same time, there are opposing opinions: some experts believe the cycle itself hasn’t disappeared but the factors shaping it have changed. Markus Thielen from 10x Research said in a December podcast that the cycle remains but is no longer driven solely by programmed supply cuts. Publications with alternative views also point to the possibility of maintaining cyclicality under a different set of drivers.
What Now Influences Bitcoin's Price?
Experts note that macroeconomic variables have joined the factors shaping price dynamics: system liquidity, interest rates, regulatory decisions, and geopolitical events. The emergence of ETFs, institutional investments, and corporate balance sheets has changed market trading logic, and miners now have financing options, reducing direct dependence of price on halving mechanics. These changes make the price more sensitive to external economic and institutional factors.
Why Is This Important?
For miners with even a small operation (from 1 to 1000 devices), the changing role of the halving means previous benchmarks for profitability may become less reliable. A price drop of over 30% from the yearly high directly reduces revenue in ruble terms, all else equal, while the growing importance of macro factors makes income more volatile.
Additionally, the presence of institutional players and access to financing for large mining companies affects market competition, which can influence prices and electricity lease conditions. It’s important to understand that the expected market reaction after a halving is no longer guaranteed and requires ongoing monitoring.
What Should You Do?
If you mine in Russia with between one and a thousand devices, it’s useful to focus on cost and risk management. Below are practical steps you can apply right now.
- Recalculate mining economics at current prices: assess electricity costs and device payback periods.
- Monitor liquidity and regulatory news, as these now impact price more than the halving calendar.
- Consider optimization options: switching pools, hybrid equipment operation modes, or temporarily reducing load if profitability falls.
- Evaluate available financing and counterparties carefully: large operators have different resources, changing the competitive landscape.
- Follow analytics and diverse viewpoints to avoid relying solely on old cycle patterns.
For a deeper analysis of cyclicality, you can read our materials discussing the four-year cycle concept and its test in 2025, as well as year-end analysis and market forecasts. For example, the review Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle in 2025 breaks down key arguments, while the article on policy and liquidity explains why macro factors have come to the forefront. Year-end results and main forecasts are compiled in the review Year-End Results and Key Forecasts, which can aid decision-making.
Quick Summary
Halving occurred in April 2024; 2025 peak was $126,080 on October 6; the year ended with the first-ever post-halving price decline. Experts are divided: some declare the cycle "dead," others see it transformed under new market drivers.