Galaxy Research published its 2026 forecast on December 18, presenting a broad outlook on cryptocurrencies, policy, and infrastructure. Central to the report is the idea that Bitcoin increasingly follows an adoption curve similar to gold’s, as institutional access grows and the need for monetary hedges rises. Head of Research Alex Thorn notes that 2026 may be relatively calm for Bitcoin’s price, while the team maintains a long-term target of $250,000 by the end of 2027.
Galaxy Research Forecast for 2026
The report emphasizes a shift in focus from short-term cycles to long-term asset adoption, where institutional access and regulatory changes play key roles. Galaxy expects these factors to strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a monetary hedge and gradually align its behavior with gold. The document also stresses the importance of looking at technology and product adoption, not just price.
Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge
Galaxy believes growing institutional demand and easing monetary policy create conditions for Bitcoin to become a full-fledged tool for protecting against currency devaluation. The report highlights that this process takes time, and intermediate years, including 2026, may appear less dramatic in terms of price. These observations help explain why analysts maintain a bullish outlook over several years.
Growth of Institutional Interest
The document notes increased institutional participation and an expected wave of listings: Galaxy forecasts more than 15 crypto companies will conduct IPOs or uplistings in the US. The authors believe these events could simplify institutional investors’ market access and further integrate crypto assets into traditional markets.
Comparison with Gold
The report draws a direct parallel between Bitcoin’s adoption path and gold’s historical role as a store of value. The authors suggest that in the coming years, Bitcoin may follow a similar curve as product and institutional infrastructure expand, forming the basis for the team’s long-term price target.
Key Trends in Cryptocurrencies
Galaxy highlights several growth areas expected to shape the market in 2026. These include public blockchain infrastructure, DeFi expansion, and a shift of payment activity to stablecoins at the expense of traditional clearing systems. These interconnected trends collectively form an ecosystem for scaling products and services.
Growth of the Solana Market
The report specifically forecasts that the total market capitalization of Internet Capital Markets on Solana will grow to $2 billion. The authors view this as an example of how specific network ecosystems can gain significance in infrastructure and application segments.
Development of DeFi and Tokenized Assets
Galaxy expects tokenized securities to expand their use, with regulators granting certain exemptions for their use in DeFi. The report explicitly forecasts that the SEC will provide exemptions to broaden tokenized assets under the "innovation exemption" program, although legal disputes around such decisions are possible.
Stablecoins and Payments
Analysts predict that stablecoins will surpass ACH in transaction volume and anticipate consolidation among stablecoins collaborating with traditional financial institutions. According to the authors, these changes could reshape the payment landscape and accelerate on-chain settlements for various products.
Bitcoin Forecasts
According to Head of Research Alex Thorn, 2026 may pass without sharp price shocks, but the long-term outlook remains bullish: the team sees a path to $250,000 by the end of 2027. This scenario is based on a combination of institutional access, monetary dynamics, and demand for non-fiat hedges. The authors emphasize that intermediate price levels do not negate the overall direction of their forecast.
Impact of Monetary Policy
The report links Bitcoin’s potential as a monetary hedge to monetary policy characteristics and demand for assets unlinked to the dollar. Galaxy notes that changes in monetary policy influence institutional motivation to seek alternative stores of value, fueling interest in Bitcoin.
Demand for Hedging
The team assesses that markets are experiencing a "search for non-fiat hedges," which drives Bitcoin’s long-term appeal. The report views this as a factor supporting the long-term price target, even if prices fluctuate year to year.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia, Galaxy’s conclusions are important primarily regarding forces that may influence Bitcoin’s price in the medium and long term. Institutional demand and infrastructure expansion often reflect in overall volatility and liquidity levels, directly affecting mining revenue at fixed production volumes.
Additionally, forecasts about the shift of payments to stablecoins and growth in tokenization indicate a gradual ecosystem move toward on-chain operations. This does not change the basic economics of mining but impacts demand for transaction fees and potential new use cases for mining sites and hosting facilities.
What to Do?
If you operate between one and a thousand devices, focus on operational efficiency and managing price volatility risk. Control energy consumption and update firmware and equipment settings promptly to maintain profitability under current prices and fees.
Consider simple risk management steps: keep part of your revenue in stablecoins to smooth cash flow gaps, monitor regulatory news and corporate listings that could affect market liquidity. For those more deeply interested, it’s useful to read related materials, such as the Galaxy Digital perspective and the 2025 forecast, to track the authors’ evolving ideas over time.
Finally, maintain documentation on operations, plan maintenance expenses, and prepare for possible legal and tax changes: systematic management of equipment and finances provides an advantage during periods of market uncertainty.