Bitcoin closed the final trading period of the year roughly 30% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6. Meanwhile, traders and analysts point to several bullish signals, including a possible "Christmas bear trap" and a technical pattern targeting around $107,000. Together, these elements paint a picture where the price could see a notable recovery in 2026 if favorable conditions align.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
The market is ending the year after a significant correction from the yearly high, increasing focus on short-term patterns and fund flows. There is a decrease in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and signs of reduced selling by long-term holders, which together are interpreted as easing downward pressure on the price. For a detailed review of yearly results and expectations, one can compare the current picture with materials on the Bitcoin price in 2025, where key levels and scenarios for the previous year were discussed.
Bullish Signals for Bitcoin
Analyst James Bull noted that the price behavior resembles a "Christmas bear trap," which he says typically reverses in January — an observation based on recurring patterns in recent years. Another analyst, The ₿itcoin Therapist, suggested that with the four-year cycle broken, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in Q1 2026. Corporate forecasts also support bullish expectations: Citi Group's 12-month base case targets $143,000, while its bullish scenario projects $189,000.
Technical Analysis and Patterns
Daily charts mention a symmetrical triangle, whose measurement indicates a potential gain of about 22% with a target near $107,000 upon an upward breakout. To sustain momentum, confirmation is needed — the article emphasizes the importance of a daily close above $90,000, which could trigger a new rally toward six-figure levels. These technical thresholds serve as market reaction markers but do not guarantee outcomes on their own.
Market Influencing Factors
Key drivers include reduced outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, decreased selling pressure from long-term holders, and macroeconomic factors such as changes in interest rates and liquidity. James Bull points out that outflows have declined from around -1,600 BTC as of November 21 and are now "approaching zero," which is viewed as a positive sign. Collectively, analysts see these factors as capable of supporting a more sustained bullish cycle.
Why This Matters
Even a potential price recovery is important for miners, as a price increase boosts mining profitability in local currency terms, all else equal. Simultaneously, reduced selling by long-term holders and lower ETF outflows may decrease volatility and make large drawdowns less frequent. Meanwhile, the $90,000 and $107,000 technical levels act as practical benchmarks: their breakout or hold will help clarify short-term dynamics and inform equipment operation decisions.
What To Do?
- Monitor key price levels: a daily candle close above $90,000 and movement toward $107,000 are critical signals for market assessment.
- Track ETF inflows/outflows and long-term holder activity — they impact overall liquidity and selling pressure.
- Evaluate mining costs: review tariffs, operational modes, and economics amid potential price rises or declines.
- Use risk management: maintain reserves to cover electricity and unexpected expenses, especially during high volatility.
- For more context on yearly outcomes and scenarios, it’s helpful to compare with the Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 material.
FAQ
What is a "Christmas bear trap"? It’s a false bearish signal where the price breaks support and triggers selling, then quickly rebounds, "trapping" those who bet on a decline.
Which technical levels should be watched? The key levels in this scenario are a daily close above $90,000 and the symmetrical triangle target near $107,000.
What do analysts expect? James Bull sees a risk trap followed by a reversal in January, The ₿itcoin Therapist suggests a possible new high in Q1 2026, and Citi Group offers a base case of $143,000 and a bullish case of $189,000.