Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has warned that a potential correction in the artificial intelligence sector in 2026 could spill over into the crypto market, becoming one of the main risks for Bitcoin. Some analysts are already forecasting a BTC price decline, with some estimates pointing to around $60,000–$65,000. Meanwhile, a Bank of America survey showed that 45% of fund managers consider the "AI bubble" the largest tail risk for the market, and more than half of respondents believe AI stocks are trading in a bubble.
What Is the AI Bubble and Why Is It Risky for Cryptocurrency?
Definition and Signs of the AI Bubble
The "AI bubble" refers to a situation where growth expectations and investments significantly outpace the actual profitability of projects in the sector. In 2025, companies aggressively increased spending on AI infrastructure, heightening concerns about investment oversaturation and insufficient returns.
Connection Between the AI Market and Crypto Market
Stock and cryptocurrency markets have shown correlation in recent periods, so a hit to the AI sector could spread further. Paolo Ardoino explicitly pointed to this link, cautioning that a downturn in AI could trigger capital outflows and put downward pressure on BTC prices.
Expert Opinions on a Possible Crash
Investors and analysts note that significant capital injections into AI do not always correspond with proportional revenue growth. It is noted that combined AI capital expenditures could increase by 64% by 2026, while the sector spent about $400 billion in 2025 but generated roughly $60 billion in revenue.
Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2026
Paolo Ardoino’s View on BTC Risks
Paolo Ardoino warns that a correction in the AI sector could become "the biggest risk for Bitcoin" in 2026, leading to pressure spilling over into the crypto market. More details on his position can be found in Paolo Ardoino’s perspective, which elaborates on the reasons behind this assessment.
Analysts’ Bitcoin Price Forecasts
Various forecasts suggest BTC could fall to a range of approximately $60,000–$75,000, with some reports indicating a narrower target of $60,000–$65,000. Certain models also mention an average coin production cost around $71,000–$75,000 as a lower boundary in some scenarios.
Impact of Institutional Investors on the Market
Analysts note that institutional presence may soften declines compared to past crises, but it does not eliminate the risk of correction amid large-scale sell-offs. Reports from major players and forecasts, including some analytical firms, point to the $60,000–$65,000 range as a possible target for 2026; see also the Fundstrat forecast.
Economic Consequences of an AI Bubble Burst
If the AI investment cycle becomes overheated, it could trigger capital redistribution affecting related assets, including cryptocurrencies. High corporate AI capital expenditures in 2025 and the projected capex growth raise concerns about how quickly the market can respond to worsening project profitability.
The AI sector spent roughly $400 billion in 2025 while generating about $60 billion in revenue, highlighting an imbalance between costs and income. This gap increases the likelihood of a sharp correction that could impact project funding and risk asset valuations.
Why This Matters
For miners in Russia with any number of devices (from one to a thousand), events in the AI sector indirectly affect them through capital flows and overall market sentiment. If investors start realizing losses en masse in related sectors, liquidity and demand for risk assets, including BTC, could decline, leading to price drops.
Even if direct impact is mild, increased volatility will complicate calculations of equipment payback periods and expansion plans. Therefore, it is important to assess not only the current price but also scenarios of decline to the levels indicated by analysts.
What to Do?
- Reassess portfolio sensitivity: determine price levels at which it is preferable to take profits or reduce risks.
- Diversify assets: avoid holding all funds in one cryptocurrency; consider holding some in fiat or various digital assets.
- Monitor correlation with stock markets: if there is a widespread sell-off in AI sectors, be prepared for increased BTC volatility.
- Optimize mining expenses: review equipment operation schedules and tariffs to maintain profitability amid price drops.
- Have a plan for downturns: predefine thresholds for reducing capacity or selling part of assets to act calmly.
These steps do not guarantee profit but help better prepare for scenarios where an AI sector correction pressures Bitcoin’s price. When making decisions, consider your personal risk tolerance and investment horizon.