Bitcoin closed 2025 about 6% below its opening price, marking the first-ever negative close for a post-halving year. This cycle outcome has prompted market participants to reconsider the traditional link between Bitcoin’s price dynamics and the four-year halving schedule long associated with its effects.
What Is Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle?
The four-year cycle refers to the observed relationship between halving events and Bitcoin’s subsequent price behavior. Each halving reduces the block reward roughly every four years, historically followed by notable price rallies.
Examples of previous post-halving years often cited are 2013, 2017, and 2021, each closing with significant annual gains. These instances formed the basis for the idea of a recurring "four-year" market rhythm.
2025: The First Red Year After Halving
In 2025, the situation was different: despite intraday highs, Bitcoin ended December approximately 6% below its opening price. This rare deviation from prior post-halving trends sparked lively debate within the crypto community.
Reactions ranged from critical claims of the cycle’s "death" to more cautious remarks about temporary factors. Notably, crypto influencer Lark Davis wrote: “For the first time in 14 years, Bitcoin has closed a post-halving yearly candle as red,” adding a rhetorical question about the end of the four-year cycle.
Reasons Behind the Possible Cycle Disruption
One discussed reason is the diminishing halving effect as issuance decreases: the block reward cut from 6.25 BTC in 2020 to 3.125 BTC in 2024 introduced less additional scarcity compared to earlier halvings. Some market participants believe this weakened expectations for a sharp subsequent rally.
Additionally, in 2024, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) entered the market, broadening ownership and strengthening Bitcoin’s ties to traditional financial markets. Finally, macroeconomic factors in 2025 also influenced investor sentiment and risk behavior.
Expert Opinions and Future Outlook
Some observers see 2025 as a structural shift: growing market capitalization and a wider range of participants are changing price cycle rhythms. Others note that Bitcoin has been declared "dead" before, only for prices to recover, so no definitive conclusion exists yet.
Given that market influence is now shaped by more than just the halving schedule, many analysts view the four-year cycle more as a guideline than a strict rule. Discussions continue as new market behavior data accumulates.
Why This Matters
For miners operating 1–1000 devices, the fact of a negative post-halving close means relying solely on the historical four-year rhythm is less dependable. This affects revenue expectations and risk management since price volatility can shift profitability over short periods.
Moreover, changes in market participant profiles (including the emergence of spot ETFs) and the reduced impact of new supply from halvings may increase the importance of external factors—electricity tariffs, hardware availability, and correlations with traditional assets—when calculating mining profitability.
What to Do?
If you mine at home or run a small farm, simple and proven steps can help manage risks without depending on cycle assumptions. Below are practical recommendations easily implemented in Russia.
- Review your operational economics: check current electricity costs against your rigs’ profitability; adjust operating hours or capacity if needed.
- Optimize efficiency: update firmware, verify fan settings, and balance load across pools to reduce power consumption and downtime.
- Diversify income: monitor pool fees, consider switching pools or distributing hash rate among multiple pools for stable payouts.
- Manage price risks: maintain reserves to cover expenses for weeks or months and avoid decisions based solely on expectations of "cycle recovery."
- Stay informed on news and tax/regulatory changes: account for institutional products’ emergence and their impact on liquidity and correlations.
For a deeper analysis, you can read the review on Bitcoin in 2025, and the article on how policy and liquidity affect cycles provides additional context — policy and liquidity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "four-year cycle" mean? It is a historical observation linking halving events and Bitcoin’s subsequent price movements, not a formal trading rule.
Why is 2025 important? It was the first post-halving year to close with negative annual returns, about 6% below its opening price.
Does this mean the cycle is over? There is no consensus: some see a structural shift, others view 2025 as a temporary anomaly.