Bitcoin has entered a prolonged consolidation phase ahead of 2026, holding within a sideways range after a sharp pullback from the new October high. Monitoring several key charts—from the Cost Basis heatmap to weekly EMAs—helps identify where the next major price move might emerge. This article reviews these charts and highlights levels to watch in the coming months.
Introduction: Bitcoin's Key Levels for 2026
Bitcoin's current consolidation is accompanied by important technical benchmarks that help assess the risk of the next move either up or down. Notable among these are price accumulation zones and long-term moving averages on weekly charts. Below are the main observation points.
- $84,000–$85,000 — a major supply concentration zone according to the Cost Basis heatmap.
- 100-week EMA — a key support level, above which the broader uptrend structure remains intact.
- Previously observed rejections near $90,000 indicating nearby resistance levels.
Bitcoin's Correlation with Gold and Silver
In December, gold and silver reached all-time highs while Bitcoin remained range-bound. This lag in BTC’s reaction compared to precious metals has been seen before: metals tend to break out first, followed by gradual capital flow into risk assets.
This sequence suggests a delayed capital redistribution, where moves in metals may precede a more noticeable market shift in cryptocurrencies. For a detailed correlation analysis, see the Bitcoin and Gold analysis, discussing current signals and major positions.
Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Analysis
The Cost Basis heatmap reveals where most participants have established positions, helping identify potential resistance and support zones amid heavy trading volumes. As of December, the map highlights a dense cluster of supply exceeding 940,000 BTC around the $84,000–$85,000 range — the largest concentration since 2020.
Historically, similar accumulation zones have sometimes served as a base for subsequent strong upward moves. At the same time, a dense supply layer can either halt growth or, if demand balance shifts, provide solid support. Additional insights on the rejection near $90,000 can be found in the article Why Bitcoin Can't Surpass $90,000.
Hashrate Impact on Bitcoin Price
Mining has come under pressure due to rising energy costs and margin compression, pushing some miners toward external financing. Against this backdrop, the overall network hashrate declined after peaking in late October, raising concerns about miner stress.
Historical patterns indicate that after sustained hashrate drops, BTC price has mostly recovered—in particular, in 77% of cases over the following 180 days with an average gain of about 72%. Therefore, hashrate dynamics remain a key indicator to watch in 2026; a detailed forecast is available in the 2026 forecast section.
Support from Trendlines on Weekly Charts
On weekly charts, Bitcoin held above the 100-week EMA in December, preserving the integrity of the broader uptrend structure despite neutral short-term dynamics. As long as price stays above this zone, the risk of a reversal is significantly lower than if it breaks down.
If the price remains above the 100-week EMA, a pullback toward the 50-week EMA around $97,000–98,000 is possible; conversely, a sustained break below would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the 200-week EMA near $67,500–66,000. These levels help assess the risk-reward balance and recovery potential.
Why This Matters
If you are a miner operating 1–1000 rigs in Russia, the current situation directly affects operational decisions: declining hashrate and rising energy costs compress margins, while dense supply zones determine price levels where volatility may intensify. At the same time, holding above the 100-week EMA indicates that systemic market risk has not yet entered a clear prolonged downturn phase.
Essentially, it is important to monitor hashrate, significant support/resistance levels, and mining cost under local tariffs, as these factors influence profitability and decisions on machine utilization or temporary shutdowns.
What to Do?
- Regularly track hashrate and local electricity tariffs to evaluate mining margins and plan equipment usage.
- Monitor the $84,000–$85,000 range and the 100-week EMA—these help identify where demand or supply may concentrate.
- Maintain a liquidity buffer in case of prolonged revenue drops or cost increases, avoiding rushed decisions under stress.
- Perform maintenance and optimize energy efficiency to directly reduce mining costs amid margin pressure.
- Follow analytics and relevant materials, such as the Bitcoin and Gold analysis and regional reviews, to respond more quickly to market changes.
This article is not investment advice; the levels and events described are intended to aid understanding of the current market structure and assist miners in operational planning.