Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a bottom between $56,000 and $60,000 in 2026, based on the realized price and market behavior in previous cycles. According to him, most of the metrics he uses in the bull market index shifted into bearish territory in early November 2025 and have yet to recover. In 2025, BTC started around $93,000, rose to $126,080 in October, then declined and traded near $88,543.
Bitcoin in a Bear Market: What the Metrics Say
The CryptoQuant bull market index assesses market conditions through parameters like network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity. This index turned bearish in early November 2025. To evaluate long-term trends, a 12-month moving average is used, reflecting the average asset price over a year. The annual metric dynamics and final 2025 values can be compared with market reviews, such as in the article Year-End Results and Forecasts, which summarizes key milestones of the year.
The 2025 price profile—starting near $93,000, peaking at $126,080, then falling to about $88,543—illustrates the movement from the peak to the current correction phase. Meanwhile, the annual moving average and other metrics help determine how current levels relate to holders’ accumulated cost basis and historical norms.
Bitcoin Bottom Price Forecast for 2026
Moreno believes the potential bottom in 2026 could lie between $56,000 and $60,000, based on the realized price and price behavior in previous bear cycles. The realized price represents the average price at which current holders acquired their coins; this metric often approximates the level where a stable portion of investors stops realizing losses.
If you want to better understand signs of a possible bottom and market reversal signals, it’s useful to compare observed behavior with bottom formation indicators in a broader context, for example in the article on Signs of Bottom Formation. Such comparative analysis helps assess how the current decline mirrors or differs from past cycles.
Comparing the Current Bear Market with Previous Ones
The drop from the all-time high to $56,000 represents about a 55% correction, which is less severe than some previous bear markets that saw declines of around 70–80%. According to Moreno, the shallower drop can be seen as a relative advantage compared to harsher pullbacks in the past.
Additionally, unlike the bear market of 2022, which saw collapses of the Terra ecosystem, Celsius Network, and FTX exchange, no such major failures are currently observed. The source also notes the presence of institutional players regularly accumulating cryptocurrency, as well as a broader pool of traders and projects considered more reliable.
Why This Matters
For miners operating 1–1000 devices, price movement toward the realized price range means mining revenues and sales opportunities may come under pressure, especially with high electricity and operational costs. When approaching or reaching levels near the realized price, profitability margins for those with tight expense channels can shrink significantly.
Moreover, the relatively shallower decline and absence of major collapses do not guarantee a quick price stabilization but provide context: systemic risks seen in 2022 are not repeating so far, which affects investor behavior and market liquidity, in turn influencing price and volatility.
What to Do?
Below are practical steps miners can consider to adapt to the current situation and minimize risks. These recommendations focus on operational and budget-conscious solutions without assumptions about exact price dynamics.
- Reassess mining costs: recalculate current electricity and maintenance expenses and compare them with profitability at various price levels, including the $56,000–$60,000 range.
- Maintain liquidity: build a reserve for unforeseen expenses and payout delays to endure revenue drops without forced equipment sales.
- Optimize equipment operation: perform scheduled maintenance, update firmware, and monitor efficiency to reduce downtime and energy consumption.
- Monitor key market metrics: track realized price, annual moving average, and indices used to evaluate bearish/bullish phases.
- Plan action scenarios: predefine conditions under which you will reduce load, move some capacity to cold storage, or partially lock in profits.