Onchain data from CryptoQuant shows that the narrative of whales massively accumulating Bitcoin is greatly exaggerated. Numerous public metrics are distorted by exchange operations that consolidate funds from many small addresses into a few large ones. After filtering out these distortions, the real picture changes — large holders are generally distributing BTC, and total whale balances continue to decline.
Overstating Bitcoin Accumulation by Whales
Why Accumulation Data Is Distorted
Public charts relied upon by third-party trackers count addresses with large balances as "whales" without distinguishing actual ownership. As a result, exchange and internal operations can appear as massive accumulation, though this reflects technical consolidation of funds rather than investor behavior.
The Role of Exchanges in Fund Consolidation
Exchanges regularly move assets between addresses for operational and regulatory reasons, combining funds from many small wallets into a few large ones. This practice artificially increases the number of addresses with large balances and introduces distortions into onchain metrics if not properly filtered.
The Real Picture of Distribution by Large Holders
After removing exchange distortions, data shows that large holders continue to distribute Bitcoin, and total whale balances are decreasing. This insight is important for understanding the true supply and demand dynamics in the market.
CryptoQuant Data Analysis
Julio Moreno’s Perspective
According to CryptoQuant and comments from Julio Moreno, the popular narrative of massive whale re-accumulation is not supported by adjusted data. These observations explain why external metrics may have misled investors and the media; more details can be found in the CryptoQuant analysis.
ETF Impact on Market Structure
With the launch of spot ETFs in the US, the Bitcoin holder structure has partially changed: funds have become significant asset holders. This shift in ownership is a factor to consider when interpreting onchain metrics.
Trends in Large Holder Balances
Data indicates continued declines in whale balances and reductions in large-sum addresses, consistent with distribution rather than large-scale accumulation. The influence of new holders on overall market structure is discussed in analyses about how the market structure is evolving.
Long-Term Holders Become Net Accumulators
Statement from Matthew Sigel
Matthew Sigel of VanEck noted that long-term holders have shifted to net accumulation over the past 30 days after a significant prior sell-off. This change indicates a reduction in one of the main sources of recent selling pressure.
Impact of Long-Term Holders on the Market
The shift of long-term holders toward accumulation may reduce short-term selling pressure, though it does not guarantee immediate price increases. This change in sentiment among this cohort is important for understanding potential demand resilience.
Bitcoin Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was slightly above $90,000. While price behavior has not yet shown a sustained recovery, the asset avoided retesting the recent local low.
Why This Matters
Data suggesting massive whale accumulation may have created a misleading impression of the real market power distribution; this is crucial for assessing volatility risk and sources of selling pressure. Historically, whales can amplify price moves through large transactions, so accurate metric interpretation helps better evaluate the market landscape.
Simultaneously, the shift of long-term holders to net accumulation reduces one form of short-term selling pressure, which could have a delayed effect on market stability. For miners, this means part of the recent volatility source may have weakened, though it does not directly relate to mining operational activity.
What to Do?
For miners operating 1–1000 devices in Russia, key recommendations are simple and pragmatic: do not rely on unverified "whale accumulation" charts, consider exchange movements’ impact when reading onchain metrics, and monitor long-term holder behavior as an indicator of decreasing selling pressure.
- Prioritize operational resilience: manage electricity and maintenance costs to endure volatility periods without forced sales.
- Use adjusted onchain metrics and sources that filter out exchange consolidation before making trading or BTC management decisions.
- Track long-term holder balances and overall market sentiment, but avoid making long-term financial decisions solely based on "whale" data.
- Maintain cash reserves to cover operating expenses during price stagnation to avoid selling at unfavorable prices.
For a detailed analysis of similar observations and their implications for market participant behavior, see materials on holder behavior, which compare changes in actions across different participant categories.