Crypto analysts are increasingly stating that Bitcoin's classic 4-year model tied to halving is losing relevance. Experts point out that the demand structure has changed — institutional investors and corporate buyers are now in focus, while the halving's influence is weakening.
Additionally, the role of spot ETFs and regulatory easing in the US, combined with growing global liquidity, have made price dynamics more dependent on macroeconomic conditions rather than just the halving schedule.
What Is Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle?
The term "4-year cycle" describes a recurring pattern where the halving reduces miners' rewards, followed by an accumulation phase, then growth, and subsequently a deep correction. Historically, this model helped explain periods of rapid growth and subsequent market slowdowns.
The connection to halving lies in the reduced issuance, which is assumed to lower supply and stimulate price growth, followed after some time by correction and a bear trend — a pattern repeatedly observed in the past.
Why Might the 4-Year Cycle Lose Relevance?
First, the demand structure has changed: institutional investors and corporate buyers now play a key role, altering market behavior compared to previous cycles. As a result, the "halving → accumulation → peak → correction" mechanism becomes less universal in explaining price movements.
Second, macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes have started to exert a stronger influence on Bitcoin's price. Regulatory easing in the US and rising global liquidity have led to BTC's price dynamics being increasingly determined by external economic conditions rather than solely internal network events.
Experts' Views on the Current Situation
Nick Rak, director of LVRG Research, notes that signs of a break from the previous model became noticeable in 2025; this reflects the opinion that the market no longer strictly follows the four-year pattern. Notably, after the last halving, Bitcoin corrected by 30%, which reminded some observers of past cycles, but many associate this correction with external macroeconomic factors.
Grayscale analysts also believe that relying on the 4-year cycle is no longer advisable, as Bitcoin has gained institutional acceptance and is now fully influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Spot ETFs have played a significant role in these changes by attracting a broad audience and altering the buyer profile.
What to Expect in the Future?
Some specialists believe the market may enter a more stable growth phase next year, but this remains an opinion, not a guarantee. Under current conditions, it is more important to focus on changes in demand structure and macroeconomic influence than on automatically repeating previous cycles.
For a more detailed analysis of the cycle's history and whether it has ended, see our article on the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle in 2025, and for context on market movement over the past two years, the 2024–2025 Market Analysis is useful.
Why This Matters
If you mine with one or multiple devices, the change in demand model means standard cycle expectations may become less reliable for income planning. Meanwhile, the weakening halving influence and growing role of institutional flows make the price more sensitive to financial and regulatory events.
For miners, this means short-term and external factors may have a stronger impact on profitability, and structural demand changes affect liquidity and buyer behavior. Understanding these shifts helps make more informed decisions about operations and equipment investments.
What to Do?
Below are practical steps to help minimize risks and optimize operational activities for miners of any size.
- Assess mining costs: recalculate electricity expenses and equipment depreciation to know your break-even point.
- Diversify income: if possible, combine mining with selling part of mined BTC and holding some assets to reduce dependence on short-term price fluctuations.
- Optimize farm operations: monitor cooling, ASIC efficiency, and work schedules to lower operating costs and extend equipment lifespan.
- Stay updated on regulations and ETF news: changes in rules and institutional flows can affect liquidity and volatility, so keep the information environment under control.
- Plan a reserve fund: maintain liquidity cushions for sharp corrections to avoid forced sales of equipment or assets at a loss.