Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin could show steady growth over the next decade, though exceptional annual jumps are unlikely. According to him, this will be a "10-year creeping" upward trend with strong but not spectacular returns and periodic fluctuations. Hougan also reaffirmed his view that 2026 will likely be a positive year for Bitcoin. These assessments provide a baseline framework for investor and market participant expectations.
Bitcoin Return Forecast Over 10 Years
Hougan describes the outlook as a prolonged ascent with moderate volatility: strong but not extreme annual returns and occasional "ups and downs." He reiterated his expectation of positive momentum in 2026, consistent with his earlier forecasts. One reason he cites for smaller drawdowns is steady institutional investor buying, which smooths out short-term movements.
Current Bitcoin Market Situation
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $125,100 in October 2025, after which the price declined and at the time of publication stands at $87,818, down 3.81% over the last 30 days. This combination of record highs followed by a pullback highlights the market’s characteristic cycles and the differing reaction speeds of retail versus institutional participants. For a more detailed comparison of views on 2026, see the Bitcoin price forecast for 2026.
Expert Opinions on Bitcoin’s Future
Alongside Hougan’s optimistic outlook, more cautious views exist: trading veteran Peter Brandt has hypothesized a possible price drop to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026. ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Beau notes it remains unclear whether Bitcoin’s standard four-year cycle has concluded, adding uncertainty to forecasts. As a result, scenarios of both continued growth and significant correction coexist on the horizon.
Impact of the Trump Administration on Bitcoin
Although Bitcoin showed a strong start in early 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Hougan believes the administration is unlikely to significantly boost the asset’s price further. His argument is based on the regulatory stance toward the asset becoming clearer and the executive branch having few additional measures that could drastically change the price. This view partially aligns with other market participants who also see limited influence from the administration on Bitcoin’s price.
Why This Matters
For miners, not only the short-term price but also the nature of long-term dynamics is important: if the market truly moves in a long-term "up with fluctuations" direction, this provides a basis for planning revenues and equipment investments. At the same time, the possibility of major corrections, as warned by some analysts, requires readiness for temporary margin declines. Understanding the balance between institutional support and retail volatility helps assess risk and make practical decisions about managing mining fleets.
What to Do?
Below are concrete and practical steps for miners with 1–1000 devices to help reduce risks and adapt to the described market picture.
- Maintain a financial buffer: allocate reserves to cover expenses during temporary revenue downturns to avoid selling equipment at a loss.
- Optimize efficiency: monitor power consumption, perform scheduled maintenance, and update firmware to reduce mining costs.
- Diversify income: if necessary, gradually sell portions of mined Bitcoin to mitigate the impact of short-term fluctuations.
- Monitor the market and forecasts: periodically review year-end summaries and analytics, such as 2025 results, to adjust your action plan.
- Consider regulatory environment: keep documentation and maintain tax compliance in case of changes in rules and requirements.
These measures will help you remain flexible regardless of short-term fluctuations that may follow the long-term trend described in the forecasts.