Popular analyst Ben Cowen believes that Ethereum is unlikely to surpass its all-time high in 2026 due to weak Bitcoin momentum. According to him, the current market structure does not support a full price recovery in the coming year. Cowen suggests that Ethereum might at some point approach the $4878 range, but there is a significant risk of a "bull trap" forming, followed by a correction down to $2000.
Ben Cowen's Forecast for Ethereum
Cowen emphasizes that returning to the all-time high would require a 40% price recovery, but he states there are no fundamental reasons to expect this scenario at present. He warns about a possible "bull trap": even if Ethereum nears $4878, the market could reverse, and the price might correct to around $2000.
Bitcoin's Influence on the Cryptocurrency Market
The analyst links his pessimistic Ethereum forecast to Bitcoin's current weakness: as the dominant cryptocurrency, Bitcoin sets the tone for the entire market, and its dynamics affect other assets. Supporting other market perspectives, note the Bitcoin forecast, where Peter Brandt predicts a correction to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026; such a correction could increase pressure on altcoins.
Analysis of Ethereum's Previous Trends
Cowen recalls that in 2021, Ethereum briefly approached its all-time high before entering a sustained bearish trend and correcting down to $2700 by year-end. He notes that a similar trend could repeat in the next 12 months if unfavorable market conditions persist.
Opinions from Other Experts
Besides Cowen, specialists from Fundstrat Global have forecast systemic weakness for Ethereum and allowed for a correction down to $1800; these conflicting assessments are discussed in detail in the article on contradictions in Fundstrat's analysis. Meanwhile, Cowen believes that despite overall altcoin weakness, Ethereum remains the only alternative asset that holds genuine investment interest for him.
Why This Matters
If Cowen's and other analysts' forecasts prove accurate, miners will face more volatile Ethereum prices and increased risk of prolonged low profitability periods. Pressure from Bitcoin and potential major corrections could reduce mining returns, especially for those operating smaller or older rigs.
At the same time, the fact that Ethereum remains of interest to analysts indicates ongoing demand for the asset, and significant price movements will affect equipment payback calculations and strategies for selling mined Ethereum. Even if forecasts don't immediately change the situation, miners need to understand possible scenarios to manage risk effectively.
What to Do?
- Review profitability calculations: consider scenarios where prices drop to $2000 and $1800, as well as a potential rise to $4878 followed by correction.
- Optimize energy consumption and maintenance: reducing operating costs will help weather low-price periods, especially with smaller equipment fleets.
- Avoid rushing to sell: signs of a "bull trap" mean short-term peaks could be followed by sharp corrections, so plan sales across price ranges.
- Monitor Bitcoin dynamics: sharp BTC movements directly impact altcoins, so Bitcoin news and forecasts are crucial for decision-making.
- Read diverse analyst opinions: comparing expert views is helpful, such as the analysts' opinions on Ethereum's 2026 forecast.