According to entrepreneur Changpeng Zhao, prediction markets have historically possessed very high potential but for a long time did not realize this potential within the crypto industry. Recently, as Zhao notes, the situation has begun to change amid the development of projects like Kalshi and Polymarket; the latter's influence was especially visible during the US election cycle. He emphasized that in some cases, prediction market results proved more accurate than traditional public opinion polls, which Zhao attributes to participants risking real money, thereby improving information quality and reducing "noise levels."
Changpeng Zhao's View on Prediction Markets
High Potential of Prediction Markets
Zhao believes that prediction markets themselves have significant potential, but for a long time, this potential remained unrealized within the crypto sphere. Early-stage development challenges explain why the segment did not occupy a significant place in the industry for a long time. However, according to the entrepreneur, current changes provide grounds to pay closer attention to this direction.
Changes in the Crypto Industry Thanks to Kalshi and Polymarket
According to Zhao, the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has been a key factor that changed the perception of prediction markets in the crypto industry; Polymarket's role was especially noticeable during the election cycle. These changes have led to the segment being discussed more widely and attracting greater attention from ecosystem participants. More details on the impact of market events and lessons for the industry can be found in key lessons from the crypto market.
Accuracy of Prediction Markets Compared to Polls
Zhao noted that in certain cases, prediction market results were more accurate than traditional public opinion polls. He explains this by the economic incentive: participants bet real money, which improves signal quality and reduces data noise. This factor, according to Zhao, makes the direction important for further development.
YZi Labs' Strategy in the Prediction Markets Segment
Supporting Multiple Projects
Zhao stated that YZi Labs supports several projects in the prediction markets segment, not limiting itself to a single winner. The company's approach is to work with multiple initiatives simultaneously, reflecting the view of the early market phase as a period of evolution among several players. This approach allows testing different ideas and methods in parallel.
Focus on Strong Teams and Fundamental Ideas
According to Zhao, project selection is based on strong teams and fundamental ideas, as well as real market demand. YZi Labs pays attention to founders' ability to execute their plans and how well the product meets user needs. This helps select initiatives with potential long-term sustainability.
Orientation Towards Long-Term Development
Zhao added that the company prefers to work with developers focused on long-term growth rather than quick monetization. He emphasized that prediction markets should not be seen as a "winner-takes-all" race and that it is beneficial when several projects develop simultaneously in early stages. Such a strategy creates space for natural competition and product improvement.
BNB Chain's Role in Developing Prediction Markets
Openness and Public Nature of the Blockchain
Regarding BNB Chain, Zhao reminded that it is a fully open public blockchain where anyone can deploy smart contracts. This architecture provides the basic infrastructure for the emergence of diverse initiatives in the prediction markets segment. The platform's openness enables new projects to appear without centralized entry barriers.
Supporting Quality Initiatives
Zhao noted that the BNB Chain team is ready to support quality initiatives through expertise, resources, funding, and user access. This support can help projects move faster through development stages and reach their audience. Having such infrastructural backing increases the chances that interesting solutions receive necessary support.
Why This Matters
The news does not contain direct indications of changes in mining rules, tariffs, or equipment operation, so it does not prompt immediate technical actions for miners. For most miners with small farms (1–1000 devices), events around prediction markets are more informational than operational. Nevertheless, growing attention to prediction markets and project support from ecosystem players may change the information sources you use when assessing risks and events.
If you follow market signals and industry news, it is important to understand the difference between traditional polls and prediction markets: Zhao notes that the latter sometimes yield different results due to participants' economic incentives. Consider this when processing data and making management decisions for your farm, but do not treat prediction markets as an automatic source for changing equipment configurations.
What to Do?
- Follow official announcements from YZi Labs and BNB Chain to timely see support for new projects and initiatives.
- Track the development of Kalshi and Polymarket platforms as sources of additional market sentiment information.
- Compare prediction market data with other sources before making management decisions on mining or investments.
- Do not change equipment settings without clear reasons: check news for specific regulatory or technical requirements.
- For a general understanding of market lessons and context, study materials and reviews on the crypto market, such as on the altcoin bull cycle, to better assess external factors.