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Crypto Derivatives 2026: Coinbase Forecast and the Role of Perpetuals

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Crypto Derivatives 2026: Coinbase Forecast and the Role of Perpetuals

Key Takeaways

  • 1 Coinbase forecasts continued growth in the crypto derivatives sector through 2026.
  • 2 Perpetual futures on decentralized exchanges drove growth, with combined monthly trading volume exceeding $1.2 trillion.
  • 3 Speculative activity peaked near 10%, then dropped to about 4% after a series of liquidations.
  • 4 Analysts note perpetuals are shifting from the periphery to the center of the DeFi ecosystem.

Coinbase predicts growth in crypto derivatives by 2026, highlighting perpetual futures on DEX and their integration into DeFi reshaping the market landscape.

Researchers at Coinbase, in their report "Crypto Market Outlook 2026," highlight significant growth in crypto derivatives market activity in 2025 and expect this trend to continue into 2026. The main factor identified is perpetual futures on decentralized exchanges, which have become a prominent part of on-chain trading. The report states that the combined monthly trading volume of perp contracts on DEXs exceeded $1.2 trillion, underscoring the scale of capital flows into this segment.

Growth of the Crypto Derivatives Market in 2025

According to Coinbase, activity in the derivatives sector increased substantially over the year, with perpetual futures on DEXs serving as the key growth driver. Rising trading volumes and the emergence of new products have pushed perpetuals beyond a niche status into a more prominent market segment. Alongside volume growth, liquidity concentration on select platforms also increased.

The Role of Hyperliquid and DEXs

The report notes that Hyperliquid continues to hold a significant share of the sector, and the popularity of perpetuals is partly explained by the absence of a pronounced "altcoin season" and traders seeking alternative income sources. These shifts in trading flow distribution enhance the importance of decentralized platforms within the overall ecosystem. More on Coinbase's market forecasts can be found in their review: Coinbase Institutional Forecast, which discusses further sector development.

Speculative Activity and Its Consequences

The report estimates that speculative activity in the crypto derivatives market peaked near 10%, referring to positions focused solely on short-term price direction. Following a series of forced liquidations, this figure sharply declined: after a cascade of forced closures, speculative exposure dropped to about 4%. Analysts view these events as a market "cleansing" phase, reducing excessive leverage and risk concentration.

Evolution of Perpetuals and Integration into DeFi

Coinbase points out that perpetuals are gradually changing their role in the ecosystem, "shifting from the periphery to the center of the DeFi ecosystem." These contracts are increasingly integrated with other on-chain primitives, including lending protocols, enabling composable strategies and improved capital efficiency. This integration opens new avenues for risk and yield management and lays the groundwork for interaction with traditional financial instruments.

Why This Matters

For a miner with a small device fleet, growth in the crypto derivatives sector does not directly change the mining process, but transformations in trading infrastructure affect market behavior and liquidity demand. Meanwhile, the rising role of perpetuals and increased trading flows may alter pricing mechanics and the frequency of strong market moves, which miners respond to.

Additionally, the shift of derivatives to the center of DeFi and their integration with lending protocols expand capital redistribution paths within the crypto ecosystem. Even if you do not trade derivatives, it is important to understand that the risk profile and market entry conditions for new participants are changing, which in turn impacts miners' operational decisions.

What to Do?

  • Monitor liquidity and trading activity on major DEXs and perpetual platforms to understand how quickly price movements can occur.
  • Consider the risk of short-term volatility spikes when planning sales of mined cryptocurrency: phased sales reduce dependence on a single price window.
  • Maintain a reserve of funds to cover operational expenses in case of sharp market fluctuations or delays in realizing mined assets.
  • Evaluate the interaction between derivatives activity and on-chain products if you use yield from long positions or lending in DeFi.

If needed, we can prepare a brief checklist of specific metrics and platform addresses for monitoring so you can respond promptly to sector changes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are perpetuals and why are they important?

Perpetuals are futures contracts without an expiration date, allowing traders to maintain positions using leverage. Coinbase notes they are becoming more integrated into DeFi and already influence trading flow distribution.

How was speculative activity assessed?

Coinbase's report states that speculative positions peaked near 10%, then dropped to about 4% following a series of liquidations.

Will this affect mining profitability?

It does not directly impact the mining process, but changes in liquidity and trading activity can affect price behavior, which is important when planning sales of mined cryptocurrency.