Recent analysis highlights that long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as whales or OGs, are using a covered call strategy that is suppressing the spot price of BTC. Despite strong interest from ETF investors willing to pay premiums for exposure, this options-based approach by experienced Bitcoin holders is creating significant sell-side pressure in the market.
Covered Call Strategy by Bitcoin Whales and Its Market Impact
A covered call in Bitcoin trading involves selling call options that grant the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase BTC at a predetermined price in the future. The seller, in return, collects a premium. When long-term holders engage in this strategy, they use their existing BTC holdings to underwrite these options, rather than introducing new coins into the market.
This activity leads to increased sell-side pressure because market makers, who buy these covered calls, must hedge their positions. To do so, they often sell spot BTC, which can push prices lower. Importantly, the BTC used for these options has typically been held for a long time, meaning it does not represent new demand or fresh liquidity entering the market. See also: Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000 Amid $2.78B Whale Selling Pressure
Bitcoin Price Dynamics Amidst Covered Call Selling
Despite robust demand from ETF investors, the ongoing sale of covered calls by whales is keeping spot BTC prices suppressed. According to analyst Jeff Park, the options market is currently steering Bitcoin's price, resulting in choppy and unpredictable price movements. As long as whales continue to extract short-term profits through this strategy, the market is likely to remain volatile and under downward pressure.
Bitcoin's Decoupling from Stock Market in 2025
In the latter half of 2025, Bitcoin's price movement diverged from that of major tech stocks. While the stock market reached new highs, Bitcoin fell back to around the $90,000 level. This decoupling has prompted investors and analysts to reconsider the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, as the two assets no longer moved in tandem during this period. See also: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Decline and Price Support Analysis
Analysts' Forecasts and Market Expectations for Bitcoin
Looking ahead, some analysts expect that Bitcoin could resume its upward momentum if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates and inject liquidity into the financial system. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, 24.4% of traders anticipate another rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January. However, there are also analysts who predict a potential drop in Bitcoin's price to $76,000, suggesting that the recent bull run may have already ended. Market sentiment remains divided as participants weigh these contrasting forecasts. See also: Bitcoin Drops Below $87,000 Amid $200M BTC Long Liquidations During US Market Sell-Off
Why This Matters
For miners operating in Russia with anywhere from a single device to a large farm, understanding the impact of covered call strategies by whales is crucial. These actions can suppress BTC prices even when investor demand appears strong, affecting potential mining revenues. Price volatility and downward pressure may influence decisions on when to sell mined coins or expand operations.
What to Do?
- Monitor options market activity and whale behavior to anticipate possible price movements.
- Stay informed about Federal Reserve policy changes, as rate cuts can influence BTC price direction.
- Be cautious with expansion or large-scale investments during periods of high volatility and uncertain forecasts.
- Consider diversifying strategies to manage risk if BTC prices remain suppressed due to ongoing covered call selling.
