Three major AI models — Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT — have assessed the probability of a "Santa Rally" for Bitcoin at the end of 2025, while the price trades around $90,000. The models provide different figures: Gemini assigns a 55% chance, Grok estimates the probability at 30–40%, and ChatGPT at 45%.
What Is a Santa Rally for Bitcoin?
Definition of Santa Rally
The term "Santa Rally" originated from the stock market and describes the traditional seasonal price increase in late December and early January. For Bitcoin, which trades 24/7, this usually means a noticeable price rise during late December to early January amid thin liquidity.
History of Santa Rally in the Stock Market
In stocks, the effect has occurred frequently enough to enter trader vernacular, though it does not guarantee repetition every year. For cryptocurrencies, a similar effect may manifest differently due to continuous trading and other market characteristics.
Santa Rally Features for Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s seasonal movements often depend on liquidity, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand, while historical December movements have been mixed. In 2025, the market showed a strong rise followed by a correction, setting the context for the discussed probability.
AI Models’ Forecasts for Santa Rally 2025
Gemini: 55% Chance of Growth
Gemini describes 2025 as a "mountainous" year with a peak above $126,000 in early October followed by a pullback. The model believes conditions by year-end allow for a moderate rise and estimates Santa Rally odds at 55%, implying a move above $95,000 with targets in the low six-figure range.
Grok: 30–40% — More Likely Consolidation
Grok takes a cautious view: the model sees compressed volatility and no clear catalyst for significant growth. Grok estimates the chance of a meaningful holiday rally at about 30–40%, expecting sideways movement rather than a sharp surge in such a scenario.
ChatGPT: 45% — Between Optimism and Caution
ChatGPT provides an intermediate estimate of 45%, noting that after the October peak there was a pullback to the low $80,000s followed by stabilization around $85,000–$90,000. The model considers a holiday period rise possible but not guaranteed due to cautious positioning and macro factors.
Average Forecast and Conclusions
On average, the three models indicate that a Santa Rally is possible but unlikely to become a large-scale return to record highs. All agree that if a rally occurs, it will likely be moderate rather than spectacular.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin Price in December 2025
- Current price and trend: recent rise, peak above $126,000, and subsequent stabilization around $85,000–$90,000.
- ETF impact: inflows or outflows in spot ETFs can amplify or weaken price movements.
- Macroeconomic factors: overall market sentiment or improvement in expectations affects participants’ risk appetite.
- Technical levels: unfulfilled technical resistances and derivatives positioning may restrain renewed growth.
For a more detailed technical analysis of current levels and signals, see our review of Bitcoin price technical analysis in December, and for a comparison of forecasts from prediction markets, see prediction markets.
What Could Prevent the Santa Rally in 2025?
- Cautious positioning in the derivatives market and put-heavy option structures.
- Sales related to tax obligations or profit-taking after a strong rise.
- Uncertainty in the macroeconomic situation maintaining pressure on risk assets.
All these factors are mentioned in AI model analyses as potential obstacles. As a result, the market may remain in a sideways channel even if short-term spikes occur.
Why This Matters
Whether you mine with one device or thousands, understanding the probability of a holiday rally helps plan the sale of mined coins and liquidity management. A moderate rise offers an opportunity to lock in profits when prices improve, but relying on a full return to record highs is unwise.
Additionally, farm owners should consider the impact of short-term movements on electricity costs and decisions about temporarily selling accumulated coins. Awareness of chances and risks enables more balanced decisions during periods of low liquidity.
What to Do?
- Assess your BTC holdings and sales horizon: decide in advance what portion to hold long-term and what to sell during short-term rises.
- Consider partial profit-taking at levels that cover mining costs and provide a safety margin.
- Monitor flows into spot ETFs and liquidity changes — these events can sharply affect intraday volatility.
- Maintain a liquidity reserve to cover farm operating expenses to avoid forced sales during short dips.
If you’re interested in short-term signals and updated weekly analysis for operational decisions, see our weekly price analysis review, discussing current bullish and bearish signals.
FAQ
What is the Bitcoin Santa Rally? It’s a term for a possible seasonal price increase in late December to early January, borrowed from the stock market and applicable to cryptocurrencies.
What odds do AI models give for the 2025 Santa Rally? Gemini assigns a 55% chance, Grok estimates 30–40%, and ChatGPT gives 45%.
Do the models expect strong growth to new highs? No — all three models lean toward the rally being moderate rather than a sudden return to previous peaks.