Engineer David Davis published an analysis of Bitcoin's market structure. According to him, the current price around $87,600 appears to be in a strong compression phase, where price movement is confined within a narrow corridor and potential energy accumulates for a future impulse. The expert links this configuration to options market mechanics rather than a disappearance of demand.
Current Bitcoin Market Structure
BTC price is fixed within a narrow range between key levels, creating an appearance of relative stability amid high internal tension. Davis identifies key resistance near $90,000, while solid support has formed around $85,000. The influence of the options structure — a combination of the "call wall" and "put wall" — plays an important role in keeping the price within this corridor; see also analysis of current dynamics on a related topic.
Options Market Mechanics
Role of Call Wall and Put Wall
Davis describes the market as locked between the so-called call wall and put wall, where a high concentration of sold call options makes the $90,000 level a "magnet" for the price. At the same time, market makers and dealers use strategies that strengthen resistance at the upper boundary and create buying interest at the lower boundary of the range. This options configuration forms artificial stability until contracts begin to expire en masse.
Market Makers' Strategies and Hedging Effect
Davis notes that market makers hedge their options positions so that their spot selling and buying operations reinforce price retention within the narrow corridor. The hedging mechanics, depending on price direction, temporarily suppress volatility and keep BTC in a "vice grip." This effect may weaken as a large number of option contracts expire.
Volatility and Market Sentiment
The seven-day realized volatility metric for BTC has dropped to 11%, which the expert calls an extremely low level. According to Davis, such values have historically often preceded sharp price moves, and overall trader sentiment is currently in a fear zone. In conditions of low volatility, hidden market energy accumulates, and a breakout from the range may be accompanied by an intensified reaction.
Long-Term Holders' Strategies
Davis points out that long-term holders actively sell call options in the $90,000–$100,000 range, generating yield from their coins without selling them. This practice strengthens resistance as the price approaches the upper boundary, since dealers are forced to sell spot to hedge. As a result, hedging creates a paradoxical effect: when the price falls, dealers buy, and when it rises, they sell, which restrains volatility.
Forecasts and Critical Dates
David's model estimates a 77.3% probability of compression followed by a breakout. The expert notes that a significant event for future dynamics is the expiration date of a large number of options — January 30, 2026 — which accounts for approximately 39% of the dealer options inventory. According to him, the expiration of such a volume of contracts could substantially change the balance of options market influence on the price.
Why This Matters
For miners with any number of devices, it is important to understand that the current drop in volatility and options structure do not equate to absence of risk. Although the price is temporarily held within a narrow corridor, accumulated energy and major options expirations can lead to sharp fluctuations in a short time. Meanwhile, short-term price fluctuations directly affect mining profitability and decisions on selling mined coins.
What to Do?
- Assess your cash buffer: calculate how many days of equipment operation you can cover at current expenses and BTC price.
- Split revenue: plan regular partial sales to reduce the risk of sudden losses from sharp price moves.
- Monitor options expiration dates, especially January 30, 2026, and avoid critical sell-offs near major expirations.
- If using leverage or borrowed capacity, reduce risk: secure reserves and review liquidation levels.
- Follow market analysis and updates on options structure to adapt your holding and selling strategy.
For additional context and a historical overview of price dynamics, see the material on Bitcoin price in December 2025, which discusses factors influencing price retention within a narrow range.