On-chain indicator data shows that the Bitcoin market remains in a bearish phase: the Bull-Bear Cycle metric indicates a continued downward trend, and the 30-day moving average stays 0.52% below the 365-day moving average. At the same time, there is a decline in transaction activity and the number of highly active addresses, reflecting a reduction in speculative demand on the network. These changes manifest in fewer transactions and lower total fees, indicating decreased blockchain load.
Current Situation in the Bitcoin Market
Overall on-chain metrics paint a picture of weakening demand: the Bull-Bear Cycle shows an ongoing downward trend, and the 30-day moving average remains 0.52% below the 365-day average. The decline in speculative activity is confirmed by a reduction in the number of addresses actively involved in trading and transactions. These observations align with the public CryptoQuant data that underpin conclusions about the market phase.
Changes in Transaction Activity
Over the past week, the number of transactions decreased from approximately 460,000 to 438,000, indicating reduced interest in network usage and a drop in speculative operations. Simultaneously, total fees in dollars fell from $233,000 to $230,000, reflecting less competition for block space and lower blockchain load. Together, these metrics show that the network is currently used less frequently than during periods of heightened demand.
Market Participant Activity
The number of highly active addresses continues to decline—from 43,300 to 41,500—interpreted as some large participants and institutional traders adopting a wait-and-see stance. This behavior is typical for bearish phases: activity concentrates among a narrower group of addresses while other users act more cautiously. In this context, it is useful to monitor related metrics, including hashrate and price dynamics, which are discussed in the analysis of hashrate and price.
Comparison with Previous Bear Markets
The observed signs—declining transaction activity, falling fees, and fewer large addresses—resemble network behavior during the 2018 bear cycle. However, the user base has grown: today, the network has about 800,000 active addresses compared to roughly 600,000 seven years ago, indicating a more resilient ecosystem structure. These differences may mitigate the impact of reduced activity, though they do not negate the signs of a bearish phase.
Why This Matters
For miners operating 1–1000 devices in Russia, the current statistics are important as they reflect changes in demand for transaction services and overall network activity. Lower fees and transaction counts mean less competition for block inclusion, but this does not impose new technical requirements on equipment. Understanding market direction helps adjust operational decisions and financial expectations without abrupt changes to hardware.
What to Do?
A brief set of practical steps for miners to adapt to the current situation:
- Monitor key on-chain metrics (transactions, fees, active addresses) and compare their trends with mining profitability.
- Optimize energy consumption and equipment operation modes—reduce costs if profitability declines.
- Plan expenses and BTC sales based on your financial model, avoiding panic-driven decisions.
- Keep firmware and farm configurations up to date to maintain efficiency amid changing network conditions.
These steps will help you stay flexible amid market shifts and smooth out short-term activity fluctuations without unnecessary risks to equipment and budget.