Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, outlined a conditional scenario under which 2026 could become a significant milestone for Bitcoin. He notes that Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2025 coincided with a lack of correlation with gold, but with certain technical developments, the outlook could change. In his view, a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the $100,000 level will be the key condition for a substantial rally.
Mike Novogratz’s 2026 Forecast
Who is Mike Novogratz and His Role at Galaxy Digital
Mike Novogratz is known as the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, a company focused on investments in digital assets. His comments are regarded by market participants as reflecting the views of an institutional player on cryptocurrency prospects.
Main Points of His Bitcoin Forecast
Novogratz acknowledged that Bitcoin underperformed expectations in 2025 and did not move in coordination with gold prices. Nonetheless, he remains optimistic about the near future, relying on a set of market catalysts and sentiment indicators that, in his opinion, could align in favor of the asset if events unfold properly.
Why 2026 Could Be a Turning Point
Novogratz’s key argument centers on a technical and psychological threshold: Bitcoin must break through and hold the $100,000 level. According to him, such a breakout could signal a new wave of interest from institutional and retail participants and pave the way for more sustainable growth.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Growth
Technical and Psychological Barriers
Novogratz emphasizes the significance of the $100,000 level not only as a number but as a psychological barrier capable of changing market perception of the asset. A clean and confident breakout of this resistance, in his view, could mark a transition to a new trading range.
The Role of Institutional Investors
According to Novogratz, attracting new institutional capital could be one of the growth drivers if technical conditions confirm the start of a new market phase. For a more detailed look at related assessments and forecasts, see the article with a different perspective on 2026, such as the Galaxy Digital viewpoint.
Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions
Novogratz notes that the combination of market catalysts and participant sentiment influences the likelihood of recovery. He highlights that the current broad weakness in 2025 does not eliminate the market’s potential if sentiment shifts and technical levels are confirmed.
Analysis of the Current Market Situation
Summary of 2025
In 2025, Bitcoin showed more restrained dynamics than expected, which Novogratz describes as underperformance and a divergence from gold’s movement. He characterizes this period as a consolidation phase rather than parabolic growth.
Comparison Between Bitcoin and Gold
Novogratz points out the absence of the anticipated correlation between Bitcoin and gold in 2025, despite ongoing discussions about both assets as "stores of value." This observation serves as one reason for a cautious approach to evaluating current market signals.
Influence of Public Sentiment
The expert notes that he interprets the current negative public attitude toward digital assets as a contrarian indicator. According to him, periods of widespread pessimism often precede recovery phases across various asset classes, reinforcing his cautious optimism.
The Significance of the $100,000 Level
Psychological Aspect
Novogratz views the $100,000 mark as an important psychological milestone: breaking it could change market participants’ expectations and attract broader attention from media and investors. This effect could accelerate capital inflows upon confirmation of the technical breakout.
Potential Market Implications
In Novogratz’s opinion, a confident breakout and hold above this level could signal Bitcoin’s transition into a new trading range and serve as a cue for long-term investors. However, he stops short of guarantees, presenting it as a conditional development scenario.
Why This Matters
For miners, this forecast is primarily important as an indicator of shifting market focus: sustained price growth after breaking $100,000 would theoretically increase demand and interest in the network, potentially affecting profitability and operational decisions. At the same time, Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 and lack of correlation with gold suggest that price movements remain unpredictable and depend on a combination of sentiment and technical signals.
What to Do?
For miners with small to medium-sized operations (from one to a thousand devices) living and working in Russia, it is important to stay practical and prepared for various market scenarios. Below are specific steps to help manage risks and seize opportunities without relying on guaranteed growth forecasts.
- Monitor the key $100,000 level and respond to confirmed technical signals rather than rumors.
- Plan electricity and maintenance expenses to withstand periods of low profitability.
- Maintain cash reserves or liquid assets to cover operating costs during downturns.
- Keep firmware updated and equipment in working order to maintain mining efficiency.
- Explore alternative strategies: reducing power, temporarily shutting down part of the farm, or balancing income between reinvestment and liquidity preservation.
If you want to compare this assessment with previous conclusions from the Galaxy Digital team, check out the article on the 2025 forecast Galaxy Digital conclusions, which discusses the results and lessons from the past period.